'Twas the Night Before the Spelling Bee...

And the semifinalists are in. And already Darren Rovell (self-proclaimed spelling bee handicapper) is off on one of his picks!!!! Miss Juliana Canabal-Rodriguez, a general-consensus favorite, who unfortunately will not be representing Puerto Rico this year in NSB, coming up short in the preliminary rounds. Honestly, Miss Canabal-Rodriguez, and any other spellers who felt like they worked long and hard all year and should have had that work validated in a trip to the ESPN stages and a possible shot at the Spelling Bee Crown (which is as wide-open this year, btw, as it has ever been, I agree with most people on that).........this happens all the time. The Spelling Bee is fun for us watching at home, it's a nice annual event that allows all of America to see the wonderfully talented and intelligent 14-year-old-and-unders spell, but the competition is inherently flawed: The "rankings" for each speller do not perfectly reflect who is the best speller: The speller that makes it to the final rounds is not necessarily better than the speller who didn't make it, spellers who make it to D.C. are not necessarily better than a speller who tripped up in the regional rounds......some years, even the winner of the competition isn't the best speller in the nation....she or he just won the competition. So I wouldn't be too upset or disappointed.....the National Spelling Bee, after all, is just a bridge to bigger or better things: Life does not end at 14, or after high school, or even after college: It's only beginning. This is just one of the beginning of a series of moments that set you up for the rest of your life.

Here, another note: Props to all the spellers at the National Spelling Bee. I can't imagine how much dedication and hard work it takes to compete at a National Spelling Bee level; I never was part of that world. From all I've read and heard and can imagine, it's gotta be hard, arduous, and many times unfruitful. You have to have some resolve to get through it, tenacity, and endurance. For many spellers, it's been years since they started studying for the bee, a lot of afternoons spent poring over dictionaries, memorizing words, studying their minds off. And I imagine it's not the best activity to attract peer recognition. The captain of the junior high football team or the cheerleading squad is easily more popular than a spelling bee competitor, so it takes real resolve to fight on without much promise of resolve. But I think only later on will a speller (much like myself, who only appreciated sitting through so many violin lessons and chess games later on in life) truly understand how special doing the National Spelling Bee was: it's definitely a huge accomplishment early on in life, something a speller had to work hard at to achieve, and it will stay with them forever.

....Ok now to the good stuff. Who's gonna win National Spelling Bee 2011? I've been "handicapping" for 3 years (this is my 4th) and I'm due (haven't really gotten it right). OBVIOUSLY the same rules still apply: Experience, experience, experience. Age. Amount of words. And how many times you've been to the finals. So key. There's ALWAYS surprise newcomers (almost a pun on Newcombe) who make it to the finals, but the winner is ALWAYS someone who's been there before in one capacity or another. So you only got about 10 kids each year you're picking from.


I've given this a lot of thought and considered many scenarios this year. I first thought about the unlikely scenarios. Would a random speller like Hanif Brown, Jr. from Kingston, Jamaica finally recapture the Bee for Jamaica after a 13-year hiatus (last done in 2008)? Unlikely, the Jamaicans always show up to the semifinals, but lack the extra "oomph" because the individual spellers they send don't get to repeat. Will an eighth-grader like Lily Jordan from Portland, Maine or Anja Beth Swoap from Minnesota, without finals experience use age and maturity to get to the finals? Probably, but not win. Will a young phenom, like Sriram Hathwar, age 11 but in his 3rd bee already, channel the energy of Samir Patel and win? No, too young (sorry bud, you can still come back though).

Then more likely mid-tier scenarios: Veronica Penny, an old-school veteran of the bee, use her status as the "other" great Canadian speller to rise up from obscurity? It's definitely possible, but from 2008 and 2009, she's always seemed a little meek, a little timid and wary of the bright lights. Great speller, but a long shot when the going gets tough. Will Sukyana Roy use her 20th and 12th place previous places to vault her into the top spot? Definite possiblity, very dangerous player in the late haves of the rounds (#214). Will Nicholas Rushlow use his 3 previous years of experience to win in the "golden 4th year" of the spelling bee? Maybe, and he's always wearing yellow, a good sign if you're superstitious. (Btw, man the kind is smart: Star Wars, Stratego, Scrabble, chess, AND swimming. Holy cow, how does he have time for spelling?)


All of these possibilities went through my head, but my overwhelming feeling about this year's bee is this: at the end of the night tomorrow night, when the dictionary has been effectively ransacked, the spellers are all worn out, the parents have shed all their tears, the funny sentences have all been given out, the ESPN coverage guys have all pumped up the audience as much as possible, Laura Newcombe will be standing on the red carpet holding up the National Spelling Bee trophy for all to witness her ascendancy to her place in spelling bee history. Sure, she's the consensus favorite. She's the highest-place finisher from last year who's returning this year. But that's not why I'm picking her. When I wrote a post more than 2 years ago entitled "A New Star Rises in the East" chronicling Laura Newcombe's win in Canada's Spelling Bee of 2009, I thought I was onto something. A young, 10-year-old girl with a family background in spelling had just reached the top of Canada's spelling ladder, and she was headed to Washington. Seemed promising. But plenty of spellers, upon reaching that level at a young age, fizzle out, or just pursue other interests (justified), find something else to do, or, unfortunately, don't get better from there. But since 2009, Laura Newcombe has made steady and consistent progression: from going out in the "suicide round" of 2009 that also took out blog favorite Josephine Kao, to mishearing a word in the finals last year that kept her from possibly winning the whole thing, she's all the time been getting better, and frighteningly, better. Since that 2009, she's won the Canspell Bee ANOTHER TWO TIMES. I can't say I know what the Canadian bee is like, but there's been some great Canadian spellers, and being the best at that bee 3 years in a row is an accomplishment in itself. Rumors are she got 25-out-of-25 of the written quiz (I got 17 out of 25). This is the year. "Laura Newcombe, you are the only speller remaining in Round __. If you spell this word correctly you will be the champion. Your word is........."


Fantasize on,


Robert Yan
Robert Yan

Mario Kart Items

Today was the official start of the spelling bee with the written round, but tomorrow is the big day: the Preliminary rounds where all 274 spellers go up to the podium and start spelling. More to follow later today, but can't wait........the best 3 days of the year coming up!!!!


Anyway, in the marathon of life, as with in the game of Mario Kart, there are different types of runners/racers: some start fast but level off (Toad, Koopa) and some start slow but gain momentum quickly (Bowser, Wario). Sometimes, though, I wish life was more like Mario Kart: you get items every 1/3 of a lap or so to help you along your way, take out your competition, and make a dramatic change in the race. Alas, we humans in real life don't really "see" the speed-up mushrooms or the triple red shells in our life, but they're there: we sometimes don't appreciate them.

More Mario Kart analogies: my life, I feel like, has been more Toad than Bowser (Btw, for those of you who don't know the analogy because you were deprived as a child and didn't get to play when one of the best video games ever created, Toad and Kooper were smaller characters relative to Mario/Luigi class, who were relatively small in their own right to Bower, DK, Wario, who were BIG but stumbling): I started off pretty fast as a youth, flying ahead in the game to many awards, achievements, and high grades, but ever since college started I've felt a slow-down in my development, whether it has to do with realizing how small of fish I am in a big pond, realizing there's a LOT of people who are smarter than me, or just me not progressing anymore, there's definitely been a leveling off, and I have a sick feeling of other racers in this game of life (and life in general) passing me by, especially with this legal employment thing.

However, the great thing about the Toad/Koopa class of racers is, when they trip up and have to start their motor again, they're still at the same rate of speed: As opposed to the stumbling, bumbling DK/Bowser class of racers who take a long time to get their engine revving again, I can recover nicely: I'm still well positioned to begin anew, get right back on that horse, plow ahead once more. It just takes dedication to continue forward, whether I need to re-invent myself or just continue pushing in the same direction, I can recover, which is what I intend to do. (And then when I get those mushrooms/lightnings/stars, whatever item, I'll be in position to put them into the greatest use possible).

Btw, here's some fantasy baseball analogies to "items"

1.) Mushroom: If you need a burst of speed, you can do no wrong with Michael Bourn, who's on pace for 60 steals, or Rajai Davis, who tries to steal EVERY time he gets on basis, but if you're really pretty desperate, grab Jason Bourgeois, the French-sounding guy on the Astros, who's coming back from DL.....not so high on Desmond Jennings, the guy hasn't even hit the majors yet.

2.) Red Shell: If you need the blunt, brutal force of knocking someone down via the home run/RBI, pick up the aged one, Raul Ibanez: ALWAYS reliable, ALWAYS better in the 2nd half.

3.) Blooper (squid who throws ink at you): If you need an arm, think about Jeremie Guthrie: perenially underrated, always sub-.400 ERA, sub-1.20 ERA.....even if you don't get the W's and K's out of him that you'd like, he's a safe play cuz he won't blow you up in the peripherals, and his 95+ MPH fastball is a nice insurance policy.

4.) Banana peel: If you need a guy to protect leads (in Kart, you use it primarily to stop the racers behind you), closers have been actually popping up at a pretty steady pace of like 1 new closer a week since the first week of wild swings......so when news (like this week) came available that a closer (Joakim Soria) is injured or pulled, grab the replacement quickly. The next position I see opening up: Kevin Gregg, who's been bad, replaced with Koji Uehara in Baltimore.

5.) Star: If you need to trade for a star, look no further than Jay Bruce/ Justin Upton. Profiled in my pre-season selections, these 2 guys are really becoming mainstays in the lineups, and they are going to be here for many seasons. Sell an aging veteran like Kevin Youkilis or Mark Teixeria for one of these guys, especially in franchise leagues.

6.) Lightning: If you need an arm that can literally throw lightning at you, look at Alexei Ogando. Seriously, ever see him pitch? It's 95, 96 MPH heaters all game long.....he's like Justin Verlander except younger. And the Rangers will probably give him AT LEAST 15 wins this season.

Alright, spelling bee coverage starts tomorrow! Can't wait!!!!!

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Dog Days of Summer - Questions

Is this the end for the Bulls? Don't think so. From what I've seen so far in Game 5, they take their talents back to the South Beach and (at least) make it a close game in Miami. Get ready for more playoff action.

Do I lose brain cells during the summer? I sure hope not, but sometimes I wonder. I've been so used to not performing strenuous mental tasks (camp counseling, vacation, general nothingness) that my brain is used to auto shut-down. That can NOT happen this year.

Is Carlos Boozer sometimes a detriment to the team? Yes, resoundingly yes. He's big and can score, but man is he a bull in a china kitchen.


Is the National Spelling Bee wide open this year? Yes, which seems to be the prevailing trend in recent years. The clear-cut favorite will be my "New Star Rises in Canada" pick from 2 years ago Anna Newcombe, but not an overwhelming favorite like Kavya Shivashankar or Samir Patel EVERY year back in the mid-2000's. This could be another one of those the 5th-best speller in the bee wins it. But if you're gonna bet (dunno if there's a betting market on National Spelling Bee, that would be rather cruel and exploitative of a natural competition like the National Spelling Bee), bet on an eighth-grader. A year older, a year wiser. (Not sure that's the case anymore at my advanced age)

Will the Dow be going up throughout this summer? Most likely. Economy proving, hiring picking up, less than 3 years removed from a major economic crisis, the market has nowhere to go but up. Buy equities now. Can't say the same about real estate. Don't Buy, Don't Buy!!!!


Was I right on my call on "Buy Chipotle Stock?" I didn't call it as perfectly as I wanted, and the stock did go down for a month or so, but I most definitely was correct. It's heading up to around $300 now. I have an 80% success in picking stocks. I'm starting to think I'm kind of good at this.


Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Learning from your mistakes

Something I did NOT do since the last time I went whale-watching. Do NOT go on a small-size boat into the open ocean!!!! Got seasick again today. Guess I wasn't meant to be the next Magellan or Columbus: Just a landlubber, I suppose.

Apparently, I'm not learning from my mistakes in fantasy baseball. 6 weeks into the season and 4 games below .500.......I'll have to fight to make the playoffs this year.
Mistakes I have NOT learned from this season yet:

1.) DON'T pick up unestablished closers with your precious 1-2 adds: Earlier picked up Mitchell Boggs, he is no longer closing. Picked up Matt Guerrier this week, looks like he won't be the closer. ARGH!!!!

2.) Be content with your pitching categories early in the week if leading: Twice this year I've been burned for being too greedy: high risk, low reward with an inferior pitching staff. ARGH!!!!!!

BarBri's a chance to learn from your law school mistakes: what you didn't learn in law school or didn't learn the correct way, you can correct that during BarBri. Let's hope I do as their slogan: "Do it Once, Do it Right, Never Do it Again."

Speaking of Learning from mistakes, that's with 274 spellers get to do starting May 31st, in the 2011 NATIONAL SPELLING BEE!!!!!!! Excited..........9 days away!!!!

Pyramid Schemes

If you think about it, many aspects of life works as a pyramid scheme. Kinda cynical, but the analogy works. As background, I have on one occasion been offered to engage in a pyramid scheme: in high school, I was offered to "sell products" to others for discount prices, and if I could get others to go in on the same prices, I would get further discounts on the goods, etc., etc. I was contacted by one of my friends who "knew a guy" who was offering an intriguing business opportunity, and the "friend of a friend" sat me down at a coffee shop, showed me some brochures, and tried to get me to sign up. Standard pyramid scheme, right down to the "get your friends interested quickly" and "So do you see why this isn't a pyramid scheme?"

But as far as I see it, pyramid schemes consist of 3 things: 1. organizers at the top who want to take advantage of other people in advancing their scheme, 2. signin up followers who are supposed to "sign up" even more people, and 3. consistent spreading until the scheme ends.

1. Law school: Lawyers make a great deal of money in the profession, so law schools have a great selling point to recruit more people into law school, and they use law school graduates who have done well to "sell" the idea of law school to prospective law grads, except for the fact that the more lawyers there are, the less opportunities there are for each newly minted lawyer. The new lawyers spread word to new prospective law students, and so on.

2. Viral TV shows: LOST. The disappointing nature of the final season of LOST really emphasized its similarity to a pyramid scheme: Get everyone hooked with more questions, have viewers tell their friends and family of the "awesomeness" of the show, and keep enticing them with more questions and mystery, all the time knowing that there's really no substance at the heart of the show. Well played, LOST producers.

Anyway, yesterday I observed some fantasy baseball trends. Here are some tips for the rest of the year:

1. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if Bartolo Colon is still on your free agent wire, go get him. He had some sort of weird surgery last year on his arm, or maybe he spent a year in the jungles of Brazil praying on small animals, but Bartolo looks revived, and throwing like it's 2000. AND he plays for a team in the Yankees that can score a run or two. Definite add.

2. buy low on some heavy hitters ( as the weather gets warmer, these guys will heat up): Nelson Cruz, Kevin Youkilis, Pablo Sandoval (injured), Joe Mauer (injured), Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez. Hits are coming, people.

3. Not to state the obvious, but Derek Jeter is DONE. I've watched most Yankee games this season, and EVERY ball Derek hits is on the ground. Unfortunately, most everyone in the US knows this too, so it's almost impossible getting any value for him. If he somehow hits 2 HR's again, it's time to sell. Right away.

4. Definitely some unstable closer situations in the league.........so don't panic if you don't have enough closers: traditionally the best time to pick up closers is the beginning of the year, when bullpens still sorting themselves out, but still some movement during the year. No need to trade a bona fide hitter just to chase some saves (I have to tell myself this in my own league).

5. Do due diligence on young guys coming up........this was the time last year where Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Trevor Cahill, Madison Bumgarner, etc. all got called up and or/emerged. If a young player is a highly touted prospect, he could either become a dud or REALLY GOOD........some even if you're not picking them up, know what you're passing up.

Good hunting.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

BarBri Days 1-2

If BarBri (the prep course that thousands of law students everywhere take in order to pass the Bar) were a baseball season, I'd be in spring training. On Monday, recent law school grads from all over the country put away their newly-received diplomas and got ready for a 3-month battle with a singular goal in mind: passing the bar. Except unlike baseball, many people can attain their goals, and there is no degrees of success: you either pass or you fail. At once satisfying but also terrifying: the unthinkable prospect of spending all the money on BarBri, paying for the bar, and most importantly, all the time you've spent on law school to become an attorney, all dashed in one day of taking the Bar.

So yea, better be ready.

BarBri is certainly no joke, but my first impression is that it is very do-able. Based off the pre-tests and the initial lectures, BarBri is just a long process of getting your brain pumped up for the bar, like a hitter perfecting his swing so that it's in midseason form, a marathon runner getting his energy and stamina up to peak conditioning. Lawyers, our form of getting in shape is to know the law, and that's what we do with BarBri, learn and apply, learn and apply, learn from your mistakes. Hopefully it's really that simple. We'll see at the end of July.


As long of a season as BarBri's gonna be, the baseball season's even longer. It seems like forever ago that our league sat down and did our auction draft, and a million games played already, including a 19-1 game, 2 no-hitters, and 25 rain-postponed games, but alas we are only about 1/4 of the way through the season. Plenty of time for hitters to break out of their early season slumps, for lucky starters to totally disintegrate, for young closers to take over for their aging predecessors, for the weather get warm and games to actually get played, so that your players' weeks aren't shortened by weather. Here's a look at some trends that I've noticed:

1. Pretty darn close to another "Year of the Pitcher," lotsa newcomers to the starting pitcher elite, left-for-dead veterans who have had great starters, and young guns in the minors who are itching to get a crack at the big leagues. More support for my theory that you shouldn't overpay for starters. I drafted my entire starting pitching staff this year for less than $4 each and I'm doing fine: Jhoulys Chacin, Ian Kennedy, Jeremy Hellickson, Michel Pineda, Tim Stauffer, Brandon Beachy. Sure, I've traded a couple of those guys and Beachy got hurt, but you can get strikeouts/quality pitching in a lot of different places. Other names that have done just as well as the "elite tier" pitchers include Alexei Ogando, Jason Marquis (who knew), Josh Tomlin, Zach Britton, Jair Jurrjens, Kyle Lohse, Justin Masterson, etc. These are guys not even KNOWN at the beginning of the season, I'm talking barely on the fantasy map, undrafted, bottom-of-the-barrel.

2. Unlike football, you need a real deep lineup, and it's tough to compile one this year. Even the elite guys are struggling or getting injured. David Wright just landed on the DL. Hanley Ramirez can't hit for his life. Derek Jeter is apparently done. Dustin Pedroia doesn't look all the way back from injury.

3. How important is the speed-power combo? I think it's really underrated. In a standard 5x5 league, HR's and SB's are really pretty rare stats, whereas anybody can obtain AVG., R's and RBI's. Getting BOTH HR's and SB's is a premium, and guys who do both seem like they'll be really valuable. Drew Stubbs, Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Gonzalez, all capable of getting 20-20, the "Shawn Marion"-type across-the-board production in fantasy baseball.

4. My rule not to draft elite guys going to new teams seems to be mostly correct. Sure, Adrian Gonzalez is having a pretty nice year, but some of these "change of scenery guys" are REALLY having a tough time: Exhibits A, B, C: Carl Crawford, Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn, and to a lesser extent, Jaysen Werth. I don't know if it's the fact that these players usually signed big off-season contracts, or whether they're just getting used to the team, the new city, whatever........................Keep that in mind next season, everyone.

5. Ultimately, there's still a lot of luck in fantasy baseball. It's definitely more skill-based than fantasy football, and a lot more control for the active manager, but still based a lot on luck, whether it's breakout players actually breaking out, aging vterans hanging on for one more year, or just the way a ball bounces for certain teams. But the biggest luck-factor: injuries. You just can't predict injuries in the MLB.....they can happen to anyone. They can come suddenly, just like that. And suddenly you're down your starting 1B.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

The End of Law School

Two and a half years ago, I embarked on a journey that I knew would be difficult and treacherous, a journey that would test my inner resolve and give me an opportunity to see what I was really made of. On Friday, that journey ended with my law school graduation at USC. In many respects, it was a great accomplishment: obtaining a graduate degree at a top-tier university like USC is no laughing matter in the US, something that most people in the world do not have the opportunity to attempt, much less complete. My two hundred + JD colleagues and I did it: we stuck around long enough and fought hard enough to get through, and now we have that golden diploma to hang on our walls forever, two extra letters next to our credentials that we can add.

So why am I not necessarily satisfied? Well, as I had feared for the past 2 years now, ever since I "struck out" at OCI (On-campus interviewing) at USC in August 2009, I do not have definite post-graduation employment plans. I have missed the boat on "Big Law," the proverbial Promised Land for law school graduates everywhere, where successful law school careers are supposed to begin, and salaries begin in six figures. Like about 60% (rough figure based on anecdotal evidence and educated projection of the employment status of the class) of my class, I have joined the ranks of "still looking for work."

Honestly, I am pretty discouraged by my current situation. I've been trying to avoid this position all my life: working hard in grade school through high school to get good grades and make it to a good college, joining all kinds of extracurricular programs to bolster my resume, joining different honors programs to make myself more marketable, choosing a career-oriented major in undergrad (finance), going to a professional degree program (law), working various internships during law school to try to develop into a full-time position, working my butt off throughout law school, all while hoping to get going in my career as the first-born in my family to help out my parents, letting them retire early and contributing to my sister's college fund. Honestly, those goals were not that far off; if I had just done maybe 0.2 GPA points better in law school, I would have most likely landed one of those coveted "big law" positions in my 2nd year of law school; I would have had a good shot at being offered a full-time attorney position at one of those law firms, and I would be starting sometime between September-December of this year at one of those law firms. The goal's happening for several of my friends; it is not for me. That is maybe the worst part: knowing that the classmates I started law school with are going on to bigger, better things, while I'm doing the opposite, falling to ground zero and having to start my career from basically, scratch. Knowing that a couple minor things going differently would have allowed me to join their ranks, but now I will never ever have a chance to break into this mystical land called "big law," that that "door of opportunity" has forever closed for me.

How bad is it? "Experts" in the legal market disagree, but the general consensus is that law school students graduating without a job lined up are in deep trouble. Sure, you can wait for your bar results (come out November), but there's no guarantee you'll find anything, and graduates are basically at the mercy of hiring needs in "small and mid-size firms" world, where jobs are far and few between and sometimes are not even publicized; the firms definitely are not coming to recruit you; you'll have to do whatever you can to even get those interviews, including utilizing this vague, undefined skill set known as "networking." The problem with a law school degree is, if you play your cards right, you land a job that begins at $160,000 annual salary plus bonuses; if you play your cards wrong, you end up volunteering your time for pro-bono or working for very low wages and having to start at a bargain-basement level for independent law firms: 2 very divergent outcomes; no in-between. I have apparently played my cards wrong. Sometimes, my hopes will be raised by obtaining part-time employment through an internship, or hearing about some sort of job opportunity, some macroeconomic pattern supposedly leading to stronger hiring trends, but in general, there is a general mood of dissatisfaction and discouragement in terms of my career prospects in the law.

In fact, one of the most discouraging stories came the morning before graduation, where I just smack ran into a former law student at USC who graduated a year before me. After the initial formalities, I asked him a fairly standard question that I'm coming to suspect I will have difficulties answering soon: Q: "So what are you up to?" The answer was expected, but devastating nonetheless: "looking for work." Ouch. That's tough. So not only is my class struggling, the class from last year is STILL struggling. Sigh. How big's the logjam of unemployed lawyers? USC won't tell us, but it doesn't look very good.

I feel it necessary to supplement my post with the qualifier that I'm still upbeat about other parts of my life; I'm now in the best shape of my life, I have a great relationship with my parents and sister, who are all really healthy, I haven't gotten sick in 3 years, I enjoy life and realize how lucky I am to be young and living in America with my own car, on top of living in one of the most vibrant cities in the world, Los Angeles. I get that; that is all totally separate from my work life, which is in a much more unfavorable position.

So looking back on my last 3 years, there's definitely a sense of regret, a fear of "have I wasted 3 prime years of my life to get a worthless degree that puts me in a worse career position and in much deeper debt than I would have been in 3 years ago?" settling in. It's a very important and costly life lesson to have learned. But I go back to some of the old sayings that got me through tough situations in the past: "Energy, Optimism, Enthusiasm." "When the going gets tough, the tough get going." "Character is how you deal with adversity." I go forth with a mix of discouragement and subdued optimism and a question that can only be answered three years from now: "What will I be up to 3 years from now?"

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan