If BarBri (the prep course that thousands of law students everywhere take in order to pass the Bar) were a baseball season, I'd be in spring training. On Monday, recent law school grads from all over the country put away their newly-received diplomas and got ready for a 3-month battle with a singular goal in mind: passing the bar. Except unlike baseball, many people can attain their goals, and there is no degrees of success: you either pass or you fail. At once satisfying but also terrifying: the unthinkable prospect of spending all the money on BarBri, paying for the bar, and most importantly, all the time you've spent on law school to become an attorney, all dashed in one day of taking the Bar.
So yea, better be ready.
BarBri is certainly no joke, but my first impression is that it is very do-able. Based off the pre-tests and the initial lectures, BarBri is just a long process of getting your brain pumped up for the bar, like a hitter perfecting his swing so that it's in midseason form, a marathon runner getting his energy and stamina up to peak conditioning. Lawyers, our form of getting in shape is to know the law, and that's what we do with BarBri, learn and apply, learn and apply, learn from your mistakes. Hopefully it's really that simple. We'll see at the end of July.
As long of a season as BarBri's gonna be, the baseball season's even longer. It seems like forever ago that our league sat down and did our auction draft, and a million games played already, including a 19-1 game, 2 no-hitters, and 25 rain-postponed games, but alas we are only about 1/4 of the way through the season. Plenty of time for hitters to break out of their early season slumps, for lucky starters to totally disintegrate, for young closers to take over for their aging predecessors, for the weather get warm and games to actually get played, so that your players' weeks aren't shortened by weather. Here's a look at some trends that I've noticed:
1. Pretty darn close to another "Year of the Pitcher," lotsa newcomers to the starting pitcher elite, left-for-dead veterans who have had great starters, and young guns in the minors who are itching to get a crack at the big leagues. More support for my theory that you shouldn't overpay for starters. I drafted my entire starting pitching staff this year for less than $4 each and I'm doing fine: Jhoulys Chacin, Ian Kennedy, Jeremy Hellickson, Michel Pineda, Tim Stauffer, Brandon Beachy. Sure, I've traded a couple of those guys and Beachy got hurt, but you can get strikeouts/quality pitching in a lot of different places. Other names that have done just as well as the "elite tier" pitchers include Alexei Ogando, Jason Marquis (who knew), Josh Tomlin, Zach Britton, Jair Jurrjens, Kyle Lohse, Justin Masterson, etc. These are guys not even KNOWN at the beginning of the season, I'm talking barely on the fantasy map, undrafted, bottom-of-the-barrel.
2. Unlike football, you need a real deep lineup, and it's tough to compile one this year. Even the elite guys are struggling or getting injured. David Wright just landed on the DL. Hanley Ramirez can't hit for his life. Derek Jeter is apparently done. Dustin Pedroia doesn't look all the way back from injury.
3. How important is the speed-power combo? I think it's really underrated. In a standard 5x5 league, HR's and SB's are really pretty rare stats, whereas anybody can obtain AVG., R's and RBI's. Getting BOTH HR's and SB's is a premium, and guys who do both seem like they'll be really valuable. Drew Stubbs, Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Gonzalez, all capable of getting 20-20, the "Shawn Marion"-type across-the-board production in fantasy baseball.
4. My rule not to draft elite guys going to new teams seems to be mostly correct. Sure, Adrian Gonzalez is having a pretty nice year, but some of these "change of scenery guys" are REALLY having a tough time: Exhibits A, B, C: Carl Crawford, Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn, and to a lesser extent, Jaysen Werth. I don't know if it's the fact that these players usually signed big off-season contracts, or whether they're just getting used to the team, the new city, whatever........................Keep that in mind next season, everyone.
5. Ultimately, there's still a lot of luck in fantasy baseball. It's definitely more skill-based than fantasy football, and a lot more control for the active manager, but still based a lot on luck, whether it's breakout players actually breaking out, aging vterans hanging on for one more year, or just the way a ball bounces for certain teams. But the biggest luck-factor: injuries. You just can't predict injuries in the MLB.....they can happen to anyone. They can come suddenly, just like that. And suddenly you're down your starting 1B.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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