And the semifinalists are in. And already Darren Rovell (self-proclaimed spelling bee handicapper) is off on one of his picks!!!! Miss Juliana Canabal-Rodriguez, a general-consensus favorite, who unfortunately will not be representing Puerto Rico this year in NSB, coming up short in the preliminary rounds. Honestly, Miss Canabal-Rodriguez, and any other spellers who felt like they worked long and hard all year and should have had that work validated in a trip to the ESPN stages and a possible shot at the Spelling Bee Crown (which is as wide-open this year, btw, as it has ever been, I agree with most people on that).........this happens all the time. The Spelling Bee is fun for us watching at home, it's a nice annual event that allows all of America to see the wonderfully talented and intelligent 14-year-old-and-unders spell, but the competition is inherently flawed: The "rankings" for each speller do not perfectly reflect who is the best speller: The speller that makes it to the final rounds is not necessarily better than the speller who didn't make it, spellers who make it to D.C. are not necessarily better than a speller who tripped up in the regional rounds......some years, even the winner of the competition isn't the best speller in the nation....she or he just won the competition. So I wouldn't be too upset or disappointed.....the National Spelling Bee, after all, is just a bridge to bigger or better things: Life does not end at 14, or after high school, or even after college: It's only beginning. This is just one of the beginning of a series of moments that set you up for the rest of your life.
Here, another note: Props to all the spellers at the National Spelling Bee. I can't imagine how much dedication and hard work it takes to compete at a National Spelling Bee level; I never was part of that world. From all I've read and heard and can imagine, it's gotta be hard, arduous, and many times unfruitful. You have to have some resolve to get through it, tenacity, and endurance. For many spellers, it's been years since they started studying for the bee, a lot of afternoons spent poring over dictionaries, memorizing words, studying their minds off. And I imagine it's not the best activity to attract peer recognition. The captain of the junior high football team or the cheerleading squad is easily more popular than a spelling bee competitor, so it takes real resolve to fight on without much promise of resolve. But I think only later on will a speller (much like myself, who only appreciated sitting through so many violin lessons and chess games later on in life) truly understand how special doing the National Spelling Bee was: it's definitely a huge accomplishment early on in life, something a speller had to work hard at to achieve, and it will stay with them forever.
....Ok now to the good stuff. Who's gonna win National Spelling Bee 2011? I've been "handicapping" for 3 years (this is my 4th) and I'm due (haven't really gotten it right). OBVIOUSLY the same rules still apply: Experience, experience, experience. Age. Amount of words. And how many times you've been to the finals. So key. There's ALWAYS surprise newcomers (almost a pun on Newcombe) who make it to the finals, but the winner is ALWAYS someone who's been there before in one capacity or another. So you only got about 10 kids each year you're picking from.
I've given this a lot of thought and considered many scenarios this year. I first thought about the unlikely scenarios. Would a random speller like Hanif Brown, Jr. from Kingston, Jamaica finally recapture the Bee for Jamaica after a 13-year hiatus (last done in 2008)? Unlikely, the Jamaicans always show up to the semifinals, but lack the extra "oomph" because the individual spellers they send don't get to repeat. Will an eighth-grader like Lily Jordan from Portland, Maine or Anja Beth Swoap from Minnesota, without finals experience use age and maturity to get to the finals? Probably, but not win. Will a young phenom, like Sriram Hathwar, age 11 but in his 3rd bee already, channel the energy of Samir Patel and win? No, too young (sorry bud, you can still come back though).
Then more likely mid-tier scenarios: Veronica Penny, an old-school veteran of the bee, use her status as the "other" great Canadian speller to rise up from obscurity? It's definitely possible, but from 2008 and 2009, she's always seemed a little meek, a little timid and wary of the bright lights. Great speller, but a long shot when the going gets tough. Will Sukyana Roy use her 20th and 12th place previous places to vault her into the top spot? Definite possiblity, very dangerous player in the late haves of the rounds (#214). Will Nicholas Rushlow use his 3 previous years of experience to win in the "golden 4th year" of the spelling bee? Maybe, and he's always wearing yellow, a good sign if you're superstitious. (Btw, man the kind is smart: Star Wars, Stratego, Scrabble, chess, AND swimming. Holy cow, how does he have time for spelling?)
All of these possibilities went through my head, but my overwhelming feeling about this year's bee is this: at the end of the night tomorrow night, when the dictionary has been effectively ransacked, the spellers are all worn out, the parents have shed all their tears, the funny sentences have all been given out, the ESPN coverage guys have all pumped up the audience as much as possible, Laura Newcombe will be standing on the red carpet holding up the National Spelling Bee trophy for all to witness her ascendancy to her place in spelling bee history. Sure, she's the consensus favorite. She's the highest-place finisher from last year who's returning this year. But that's not why I'm picking her. When I wrote a post more than 2 years ago entitled "A New Star Rises in the East" chronicling Laura Newcombe's win in Canada's Spelling Bee of 2009, I thought I was onto something. A young, 10-year-old girl with a family background in spelling had just reached the top of Canada's spelling ladder, and she was headed to Washington. Seemed promising. But plenty of spellers, upon reaching that level at a young age, fizzle out, or just pursue other interests (justified), find something else to do, or, unfortunately, don't get better from there. But since 2009, Laura Newcombe has made steady and consistent progression: from going out in the "suicide round" of 2009 that also took out blog favorite Josephine Kao, to mishearing a word in the finals last year that kept her from possibly winning the whole thing, she's all the time been getting better, and frighteningly, better. Since that 2009, she's won the Canspell Bee ANOTHER TWO TIMES. I can't say I know what the Canadian bee is like, but there's been some great Canadian spellers, and being the best at that bee 3 years in a row is an accomplishment in itself. Rumors are she got 25-out-of-25 of the written quiz (I got 17 out of 25). This is the year. "Laura Newcombe, you are the only speller remaining in Round __. If you spell this word correctly you will be the champion. Your word is........."
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
Robert Yan
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