Finished last week 8-6 against the spread, which is pretty respectable (57%), better than picking from a hat, and just short of that magical 60% number. Here's the Guru's picks this week:
1. St. Louis +8.5 v. San Diego: You should NOT take a team with a losing record (2-3) on the road favored by 8.5 points, EVER. Granted, this is the Chargers, who supposedly are poised to make their typical 2nd-half run, but this is the prototypical "Pick the home dog" game ( home dogs don't give up, have energy, used to their stadium, play with pride in front of home fans, etc.)
2. Kansas City +4.5 at Houston: Houston might have the most atrocious defense on this earth, nullifying their prodigious offense and one Andre Johnson. KC got some credit for hanging in with the Colts and almost covering, and they have THE best cornerback in the league right now, Brandon Flowers, to stunt AJ.
3. Baltimore +2.5 at New England: Baltimore's the better team, New England just lost its best WR, and the Ravens always play up to their competition: Am I missing something? Why is NE favored at all? Should be at least a pick'em.......so I'll take the points.
4. New Orleans -4.5 at Tampa Bay: If the Saints lose this game, they are truly, epically lost. I'm giving them one more chance to prove they're the defending champs......I may regret this later.
5. Philadelphia -2.5 v. Atlanta: Truly one of the tough games this week.......Both teams are for sure good, but does Atlanta have enough in them to pull off the road victory yet? I think it's possible, but not likely.
6. Detroit +10 at NY Giants: I'm sorry, I can't give up 10 points picking a team that got SMOKED by the Titans at home 2 weeks ago. 10 points is a LOT of points and you better be sure that team will win and cover. Don't think so.
7. Seattle +6 at Chicago: Da Bears still got more problems than Lindsay Lohan, among them the fact that their O-line couldn't keep out a feather with a chain-link fence.
8. Miami +3 at Green Bay: Seems to be the trendy but correct pick: Miami's tough defense doesn't care if it's at home or on the road.
9. Cleveland +14 at Pittsburgh: This line was moved from 13.5 earlier in the week, which makes me sure that this is the correct bet.
10. NY Jets -3.5 v. Denver: Finally gonna take a home favorite.........wow, why are the Jets only favored by 3.5? Cuz Darrell Revis is out? this seems deceptively easy......
11. Oakland +7 at San Francisco: How can you POSSIBLY take San Francisco this game? Seriously, you're giving up 7 points for a WINLESS team. You gotta be crazy!
12. Minnesota -1.5 v. Dallas: Seems like 2 teams that are equally inept; I'll take the home team in that case.
13. Indianapolis -3 at Washington: As Bill Simmons famously proclaims, DO NOT bet against Peyton Manning at night. Only an idiot would do that.
14. Tennessee -3 at Jacksonville. Better team, better defense, better coach, and because my fantasy team DESPERATELY needs the Tennessee D to hold down the kittens.
Again, these are just speculative picks, NOT evidence that I'm a compulsive gambler. In the case that you do, gamble responsibly.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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