Every year around this time of year, a fever spreads throughout America like wildfire. This fever builds as the days go by and cannot be easily stopped. People infected with the disease are physically prone in bed reading magazines, often taking off from work to cure the fever or when they're at work, spreading the disease to other co-workers (at the water cooler, breakroom, etc.) This disease is called Fantasy Baseball, and it all culminates in a giant fantasy mishmash called Opeing Day, April 1st.
This time of year, EVERYONE is making fantasy baseball prognistications, player projections, rankings, position depth charts, etc. etc. They all give the illusion that their projections are gonna be 100% correct, or at least substantially accurate. I only want to be 60% correct (or better). I know I'm gonna be wrong on some of this stuff; it's just pure logic. If I was 100%, I should be in Vegas. Or buying a lotto ticket. Or predicting the weather or future sites of earthquakes, not fantasy baseball. I can only give you what I think should happen based on educated analysis; no blind faith about this. I've been burned way too many times on a "gut feeling" on players to rely too much on my own instincts.
Here's a look back at my picks for 2010 and how they fared:
1. Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett are going too high in drafts: Yup. I was totally right on both of these. And they're not gonna be any better this season (Bartlett's now in San Diego). Notice how this was the NUMBER ONE predictin for me last year.
2. "Ricky Nolasco looks like he could go out and throw a no-hitter on Opening Day." --- Yea, not so much.
So here's what I'm giving you for the 2011 MLB season.
1. Wait on starting pitchers. (AND relief pitchers). I'm doing an auction draft this year with $260 budget, and I'm prjecting to spend no more than $60-$70 (25% of the money) for pitchers. Every single year, starters at the end of player projections do awesome. (Trevor Cahill, Madison Bumgarner, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Jaime Garcia, Brett Myers, Gio Gonzalez etc., etc., etc. come to mind). And it's not like high-premium starters get double the number of starts or something: they have to take their normal 4-game break, like all the rest of us. So what's the difference between a $25 pitcher like Felix Hernandez and a $2 pitcher like Jhoulys Chacin? Very low, I would say. Don't buy the Cy Young awards......buy the numbers and potential.
Here's list of starters you can swoop up really late: (and remember, I only need to be 60% correct)
1. Michel Pineda: young prospect in Seattle, huge ballpark and , great stuff.
2. Erik Bedard: the Anthony Randolph of Fantasy Baseball: if he's on the field, he's awesome.
3. Jhoulys Chacin: notice how these guys all pitch in the west (AL West or NL west? A solid strategy)
4. Gio Gonzalez: Unheralded Strikeout machine.
5. Phil Hughes: carried my team April -May last season. He plays for the Yankees, people!!! You go six innings for the Yankees and you have like a 60% chance of victory.
6. Tim Stauffer: Opening Day starter for the Padres. Great stuff, call him this year's Mat Latos.
7. Jonathan Sanchez: possibly better than Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
8. Jorge De La Rosa: the Aztec Warrior.
9. Kyle Drabek: Relying on raw talent hasn't been a problem for fantasy owners in recent seasons: just ask Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey owners.
First Base targets:
1. Mark Teixeria or Prince Fielder: At least one of these guys is just gonna be an absolute monster. Then go with "injury risks" Kendry Morales or Justin Morneau as your second tier. As much as thes guys have had highly publicized injuries, at least one will bounce back and have his usual career year. Bank it.
Second Base targets: If you're going for broke, I'd go for Dustin Pedroia. Mid-tier, stay with either Gordon Beckham or Aaron Hill, both youngs who should have "broken out last year." They'll do it this year at a steep discount.
Shortstop targets: I advocate grabbin any of the top 4. Who knows what'll happen after that. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Starlin Castro from last year, but you also might get stuck with like JJ Hardy (never a fun prospect). Out of the top 4, I advocate Jeter of HanRam (Tulowitzki comes with too much hype, Jimmy Rollins is dead to me).
Third base targets: A-Rod. Sandoval. Youkilis. Do NOT leave the draft without one or more of these guys.
Outfield: Kinda like starting pitching; Don't overreach for early guys. Plenty of value in late rounds. Jay Bruce, Ellsbury, Abreu, Swisher, Adam Lind, Jason Bay all lurk in the later rounds (or values, depending on auction
Catcher: I tend to want to just grab Joe Mauer and just get it over with, but if for some reason you don't, Geovany Soto and Miguel Montero are gonna be good. I think either Buster Posey or Carlos Santana, or both have a sophomore slump; don't wanna gamble on one of'em.
Kansas is gonna win the Final Four/NCAA Tourney, btw. My pre-tournament pick, now that they've reached the Final Four there's no doubt in my mind. (As I write this, VCU is up 33-17 on the Jayhawks in the first half. Damn).
Fantasize on, Robert Yan
No comments:
Post a Comment