Guru's Gutsy Guesses Week 9

Similar to Cousin Sal challenging The Sports Guy (Bill Simmons for those of you who don't read ESPN articles religiously), a law school compadre of mine (let's call him Brother Mouzone for sake of a wire reference) has challenged the Guru on his Gutsy Guesses and will (supposedly) be posting his own picks in the comments. Brother Mouzone talks a big game, claiming he went 12-1 last week (missing just the Jets-Packers outcome, I mean seriously who woulda guessed the Jets would get goose-egged right?) and "averages about 8-5 every week." Riiiiight......

For the record, I was 7-6 last week and have now compiled a 31-23 record on the season, for a guessing percentage of roughly 58%. Big week, gotta learn from my mistakes, like these:

A. Dallas is BAD and can't stop anyone's air attack. Should DEFINITELY have listened to my own advice (bail on those talented but bad teams) and taken the Jags.
B. AFC teams > NFC teams....generally.
C. First decide who might win the game......THEN let the points come into play.

Anyway, without further ado, the 5th edition of Guru's Gutsy Guesses (again, not advocating gambling, people) **** Btw, the team that is listed first is my pick, just to clarify.

1. Buffalo +3 at Chicago.......The Bears had a week to rest here, and the Bills are WINLESS......Will Ryan Fitzpatrick lead them to their first victory here? The Bills have really done a good job for me putting up a fight against good teams to cover the spreads, so I'll stay with them here.

2. Houston +3 v. San Diego.........Word coming out now is Antonio Gates will probably miss this game w/ an injury, which might shift the line to like +2 or +1. Regardless, I'll take the Texans: San Diego hasn't won on the road yet and lost to KC, Oakland, and St. Louis.......Houston's probably better than any of those others.

3. Carolina +6.5 v. New Orleans.......Call me crazy (or underdog-happy), but the Saints just ARE NOT that impressive, and after a huge emotional victory @ home v. Pittsburgh this is perfect opportunity to have a letdown. Panthers are a home dog (you know what they say about home dogs = pick them) and have a history of playing the Saints close.

4. Arizona +9 @ Minnesota...........I'm gonna curse myself again (the last 3 weeks I've called a "sure-bet game" and lost every single one of them), but this has to be the best bet of the week.....Vikings just lost Randy Moss, Brett Favre's about to die, Brad Childress doesn't know where he is, the secondary...what secondary? ......the Vikings shouldn't be a nine-point favorite against ANYBODY, and the Cards aren't that bad, although they do have problems covering on the road. Still, I like them here, especially if the Derek Anderson-Larry Fitzgerald combo keeps clicking.

5. Tampa Bay +8.5 @ Atlanta: Classic case, I think, of more hyped-up team giving up too many points........Bucs are quitely (Shhhhh) o so quietly turning into a very legit, young team (dare I compare them to the Tennessee Titans?), and it's not like the Falcons routinely blow people out....This is my 2nd-most confident pick.

6. NYJ -4 @ Detroit: I read somewhere that out of the last 5 years Detroit is one of the WORST teams against the spread (there were a couple one-win, 3-win seasons in there, so yea, that figures). This is a different team. And Yes, Ndamokon Suh is a beast. But I'm gonna go with my AFC > NFC rule here.

7. Miami +5.5 @ Baltimore. Just a tough, bruising dogfight here. Miami hangs with Pittsburgh, beats the Bengals soundly, beats the Packers on the road. Feels like a late-second field goal.

8. New England -4.5 at Cleveland: The Patriots are the anti-Detroit: consistently cover like nobody's business. The loss of Randy Moss made them better, seriously it did cuz they brought back an all-business guy: Deion Branch. Last time I checked, Colt McCoy was still the Browns' QB, right?

9. Seattle +6.5 v. NY Giants: I think this week should officially be called the "Home Dog" week. EVERY matchup has a home dog!!!!! Classic case of a team going to the Pacific Northwest, something about the mist/ the fog, the rainy weather/the different time zones always confuse East Coast teams, even after supposedly a well-rested bye.

10. Kansas City +2.5 @ Oakland: I've gone back and forth on this pick. Seems as though the Black Hole is unfriendly for visiting teams and fuels the Raiders. Like Brother Mouzone suggested to me, Matt Cassel is NOT good, but would your rather have Jason Campbell? I wouldn't. The thing is, if Raiders get out to an early lead, I LOVE the Raiders (w/ Darren McFadden). But if the Raiders go down early, I HATE the Raiders (Jason Campbell leading your comeback charge? Uh-uh).

11. Indy +3 at Philadelphia: Brother Mouzone and I got into a heated exchange about this matchup: Yes, Indy is coming off Monday Night Football, it's black and blue from all the injuries, and it's on the road in Philly, where Michael Vick awaits and can shred the run defense. But Indy's just one of those teams you consistently pick, and I don't think many people have made a living picking AGAINST Peyton Manning.

12. Green Bay -8 v. Dallas. Curse you, Dallas. Picking against you out of spite.

13. Cincinnati +5 v. Pittsburgh. Bengals are always tough on the Steelers, I like the Home Dog that desperately needs it, although I will probably not pick the Bengals again after this game.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan
(Your turn, Brother)