Chaos Theory

Chaos theory is the theory of apparent randomness, the theory that complex natural systems obey rules but are so sensitive that small initial changes can cause unexpected final results, thus giving an impression of randomness.  It’s amazing how the fantasy baseball world resembles the real world: minor little changes in the world (Martin Prado has blurry vision, leaves the game, but is fine afterwards, for example) interlaced with some BIG, catastrophic changes that alter the entire landscape (Jose Fernandez out for the season with a UCL Tear comes to mind). I’ve always adhered to a similar philosophy in my daily life: human beings actually have very little control of what happens in the world, contrary to what one might believe. Sure humans can decide what to wear in the morning, but society determines what is acceptable to wear, so you’re really only given a select few options.  When life gives you lemons, make lemonade. And because humans are so defined by external forces, it’s those who adapt to what happens to us (and not surprised and go into the panic mode) who succeed the best.

When people new are starting out at fantasy baseball and ask me for advice, my tip is always: Don’t assume you know any particular thing will and MUST happen. You can’t predict the future.  That’s why I scoff (and many fantasy experts do too) when some theorists rave about one guy, predicting a LOCK of certain statistical prowess and numbers. Sure, those things might happen, but there’s no absolute certainty, there’s no one who can say for sure. I used to be arrogant about fantasy baseball (and the world, really), thinking that I KNEW that Nick Markakis would have a breakout year in 2008 (he didn’t) or Kevin Youkilis would be just fine in 2011 ( he wasn’t). I’ve been right a lot of the times too, but I don’t pretend that I KNEW that that boon would come, I only made an educated guess, positioned myself in the best position possible, and adjusted accordingly when other things changed. Simiarly, I thought law school would be a sure way to get a high-paying job (it wasn’t), I thought Chipotle stock would have tumbled by now (it hasn’t), but I didn’t sell the farm or mortagage my house on those investments………you adjust accordingly.

In fantasy baseball, many call my philosophy the “agnostic theory”- I have no idea what’s going to happen. Under my  agnostic theory, during the chaos of the long, long, long fantasy regular season,  I save my FAAB dollars or Number of moves allowed or whatever format the league uses to make the most amount of moves as possible, because I’m constantly reacting to chaos……Billy Butler had been slumping recently but is now getting hot, pick him up. Closing jobs are up in the air all around the league, pick up speculative adds. That’s how one applies the chaos theory in fantasy baseball- don’t complain about it hurting your team, embrace it and enjoy it, utilize it to your advantage while leaving your opponents in the wake.

More Chaos on Game of Thrones, but (Spoiler Alert kind of but not really giving it away) the characters who have thrived so far on the chaos are Varys and Littlefinger, coincidentally my favorite characters: always reacting to different changes, not being surprised when rulers fall and wars break out, and taking advantage of certain opportunities that arise when chaos is at its peak. Especially Littlefinger. Especially this past episode. That’s all I’ll say.

Some recommendations to deal with this 2014 version of Fantasy Baseball Chaos:

1.)    Might just be me but there’s been a record number of blown saves in baseball this year and a record number of bullpen jobs in flux. Don’t overpay for any of these newly aligned closers, just follow all the bullpens in flux and try to get one of these newly anointed closers on the cheap. Ex: Chad Qualls.

2.)    Might also be a record year for injuries.  A lot of teams are probably holding on to injured guys who take up otherwise useful roster spots, so having an extra couple spots can help get the edge on shorthanded teams.

3.)    A LOT of slow-starting hitters out there: Carlos Santana, JJ Hardy, Billy Butler, David Wright, just to name a few. These are multi-category hitters who have put up numbers over a long period of time, and May 20 is still not the time to panic. Pick up those hitters who have been kicked out of cars dropped by other baseball drivers on the fantasy baseball road of chaos.