Depending on which fantasy league you use, or what kind of
metrics, Max Scherzer’s value was different. Some value him at No. 6, some at
No. 8 overall. No matter how you slice it, though, Scherzer’s numbers last year
were TOP TEN OVERALL in the game. Not Top 10 starting pitching, Top 10 Overall.
Only Clayton Kershaw was better than him, but Scherzer bested Kershaw in wins
by 5 (flukey stat, I know) and strikeouts (not flukey at all).
There are so many arguments why Scherzer might not repeat
what he did in 2013 (full season of health, BABIP risk, higher walk rate than
other elite pitchers, flukey year, etc.) that I’m not going to go over them
here. However, what’s NOT covered by most is the chances that Max Scherzer
repeats (or comes close to repeating) his 2013 totals, which to me are the most
likely scenario. That’s the Max Scherzer theory: We all know about the “the
hate has gone too far theory” that I sort-of detailed in the David Ortiz Theory
where a player gets downgraded too much due to a bad season or injuries or other
factors, but the inverse is also true: sometimes fantasy managers don’t give
enough credit to a breakout season, a sort of “shrug” response.
Compared to other pitchers, Scherzer’s 2013 season almost
gets no credit. Scherzer had a better year statistically than Jose Fernandez,
but I’ve seen Fernandez go AHEAD of Scherzer in a lot of drafts this season,
primarily because of hype for the “awesomeness” that is Jose Fernandez, partly
because Fernandez plays in an easier division and he recently proclaimed he was
going for an under-2.00 ERA season. Whoopedy-doo. Let’s look at the stats that
really matter: Fernandez did what he did in his ROOKIE season, meaning there is
a very small statistical sample of his abilities. Sure, there’s a non-zero
chance his stats get better, but there’s a better chance (because the stats are
so good already) that his stats get worse, and significantly worse. It’s a big
floor, in fantasy nerd terms. Whereas Scherzer, who’s not exactly a dinosaur at
age 30, had a better season last year that should get more cred, has been
getting better, and has a much higher floor……….we know that as long as Scherzer
is pitching, the strikeout numbers will be there……..he’s struck out more than
200 batters in various seasons. People seem to forget that Scherzer himself was
a top prospect much like Fernandez when Scherzer was coming up in 2007/2008,
and in 2014 we’re finally getting a (very good) finished product. I think as
good as Fernandez has looked he has some flaws and setbacks that he’s gonna
experience.
Other guys that I like: Matt Holliday, a solid bet every
season to go .300-25-100 in a great lineup, is going behind Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel
Puig, JOE MAUER, and Buster Posey. Please value his 23-ranked fantasy season
and 37-ranked fantasy season the previous years a little more, please.
Jaysen Werth had the 28th-ranked fantasy season
last year, a fantasy stalwart at .318-84-25-82-10. A serious 5-category
contributor whose manager has stated they will “run more this year.” No love. It’s
not like these “old” (Werth is like 33, Holliday 34) can’t ever put up top-20
seasons, David Ortiz had a 17-ranked season last year at the age of 38!
Anyway, just food for thought going into a very important 2
weekends of fantasy baseball drafting.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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