Several topics I want to discuss, among them my 4th annual pick for winner of the 2012 National Spelling Bee (I’m due). So this year the field for the National Spelling Bee is wide open. Unlike 2009/2011, the field is wide open (but not as wide open as 2010, when it was a veritable free-for-all).
I ended 2011 with the prophetical “2012 will be all about the Sriram (Hathwar) Express v. The Arvind (Makhtaly) Train, but apparently one of those modes of locomotives have been derailed: Sriram Hathwar, as I understand it still eligible for the Spelling Bee, is not in the semifinals. Didn’t even show up to Washington, D.C. this year. Strange, very strange. The Bee is turbulent and full of surprises, but it’s not common that someone who was a top 10, national final-level talent from the previous year will just NOT qualify for D.C. In fact of all the time I’ve been watching the Bee I don’t think that’s EVER happened. It’s like if LeBron James’s Heat didn’t make it to the NBA Finals (even chance), didn’t make it to the Eastern Conference Finals (unlikely, but could happen), but didn’t EVEN MAKE IT TO THE PLAYOFFS!!!! (almost impossible). A big loss for Sriram (where art thou, buddy? And will you be back next year to reclaim spelling glory?) but a big win for the other contenders in the field.
A note about the National Spelling Bee: I’m all about “Experience, experience, experience,” at the Bee and have a noticeable predilection towards favorites and “returners” (with good reason, I want to root for a contestant I’m familiar with, have built a TV relationship with much like I root for Tyrion Lannister in GOT), but I have to remind myself that every year at the Spelling Bee is different. A whole calendar year has passed since the last spelling bee: Contestants have moved, words have changed, new words have been added to the English language, contestants lose interest in the bee, contestants do other things, contestants get more focused, contenders become champions). A speller may be more or less prepared than he was the previous years; it’s possible that a speller has actually REGRESSED (although, not much chance of that unless you totally give up spelling for a year). That’s the nature of sports, players get better, get worse, and their ability changes. I remember my junior year of high school was my peak level of chess ability: I saw the whole board, I focused entirely on the chess, and I won almost every match I was in. I thought I’d be a year wiser, a year hungrier, a year better the next year, ready to go for a championship, but it was not to be: for whatever reason, whether it was mental, psychological, strategic, I did worse my senior year than junior year, lost more games. One of my biggest regrets ever in life but gave me a valuable life lesson: If you have a chance to do something, do it that year. Cherish it. Don’t let it slip away. There might not be a next year: Like the NBA (Chicago Bulls), people get hurt, people get old, the window of opportunity closes, etc., etc.
I hate to “lay odds” and treat Spelling Bee contestants like racehorses running the Kentucky Derby, but it’s the best way of sports-analogy statistically measuring a contestant’s chances. (For example, I know exactly what it means that the Spurs are a 2:1 favorite to win the NBA Championship.
Arvin Mahankali – 5 to 1
Nicholas Rushlow – 7 to 1
Vanya Shivashankar – 7 to 1
Grace Remmer- 8 to 1
Nabeel Rahman- 8 to 1
Emily Keaton – 15 to 1
Snigdha Nandipati – 20 to 1
Rahul Malayappan – 30 to 1
Gina Solomito – 30 to 1
Sunny Levin – 50 to 1
Rachel Cundey- 100 to 1
Field: 20 to 1.
This reflects my best guess at the odds for the winner of the National Spelling Bee tomorrow, and I think I’ve done a pretty good job. (5 to 1 would mean I think Arvind has about a 20% shot at winning, 8 to 1 means about a 12% shot, etc.). I think the names on the list are definitely the top 10 spellers with the best chances of winning, based on experience (lots of 3-timers and 4-timers on this list) and previous finishes- just because you’ve been here 4 times doesn’t mean you have a good shot if you’ve not reached the semifinals in those 3 previous trips (i.e. Malayappan). I like Snigdha Nandipati as a darkhorse from San Diego (a very tough spelling area, plus a recent winner from there in 2005), Emily Keaton seems to have had great spelling success in her native Kentucky, but the National Finals are another matter, Nabeel Rahman could have gone higher based on his 9th place finish last year but doesn’t have the pedigree, I would have had Vanya at like 30 to 1 earlier today based on the fact she’s TEN YEARS OLD, but having Kavya as her sister and having the only perfect score in the written round really shoots her up to the odds and would be the “hot pick” if this were real gambling, and I do think tomorrow a boy breaks the streak of female winners, and Arvind or Nick Rushlow (been there FIVE TIMES!!!!) takes it down. My guess, however, is that Darren Rovell + most bloggers will take the extremely bubbly-plus-talented Vanya Shivashankar as the “public pick,” and they may be right. I just don’t see a 10-year old winning it this year: Certainly from 2012-2014 these are Golden Years for Vanya and I think she’s gonna win one of the next 2. Can’t wait for another installation of the Early-Summer Classic: The National Spelling Bee.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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