This time of year (it’s always around Labor Day, there’s a shift in the fantasy manager’s attention from fantasy baseball to football). Hopefully you have all of September to play fantasy baseball, the longer you go the better you’re doing, but we don’t all have that luxury. As teams get eliminated from playoff contention, fantasy football drafts come rolling around, you can feel summer ending, the days are getting shorter, and you can’t help but bid adieu to baseball and start anew with football, especially with the amount of baggage that a long baseball season can force a manager to carry.) So DaMan brings you a special Fantasy Baseball post, and then starting the NFL season right with an NFL post.
Fantasy Baseball lessons from 2011
DaMan got creamed this year. Looking back, I feel like a guy going to Vegas to fulfill the American dream, then losing his shirt and having to beg for bus fare on the way back home. So much optimism after 2 consecutive playoff campaigns, so much confidence, shattered by a lost season that really put my perspective on fantasy baseball into question.
1. Do NOT shy away from drafting guys who disappointed last year. Especially if you trust your abilities, cuz if you owned the previous year, chances are you trusted them at some point, they just underachieved in the particular season. Doesn’t mean they don’t have the talent/skills/ability to contribute the next season, and a breakout may be on the way.
My 2010 fantasy lineup (let me know if some of these names sound familiar): Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Jimmy Rollins, Evan Longoria. All (with the exception of Longo) hibernating last season, they each redefined the word “renaissance” and basically were all Top 10 hitters. I’ve kicked my own butt many times over this.
2. Don’t make trades too early in the season unless you NEED to. Sure, if you don’t have a catcher in your lineup, or someone got injured early, trade for one; but if you’re (like me) just trading to improve or as a reaction to underperformance, chances are you’re looking at too small of a sample size. Exhibit A of 2011: Ian Kennedy. Exhibit B: Brian McCann. I traded Kennedy after he gave up 9 runs in a game to the Cardinals; seems like he’s given up 9 total earned runs in 25 starts since. Incredible. Brian McCann: no wonder he was the 56th-ranked player in Yahoo!.
3. Young guys, young guys, young guys!!!! Bobby, how many times do you have to remind yourselves to take young guys!!!! I don’t care how many great stat years guys have, once they get over 30 they’re very prone to injuries, leveling off, or the worst (and a dirty dirty word that a fantasy owner never wants to hear), REGRESSION. This year I drafted Ian Kinsler (under 30, had great year), Derek Jeter (38, had terrible year until I dropped him at which point he instantly started hitting), Mark Teixeira (over 30 but had a great year, that happens), Kevin Youkilis (over 30, terrible year, always hurt, wasting what could have been a monster year in a pregnant lineup), Brian McCann (28, had great year), Magglio Ordonez (throwaway pick, he just sucked), and Jason Bay (over 30, will forever suck from now on). You might get lucky on an over-30 player once in a while, but you won’t make a living on it.
4. Don’t be immune to starting pitching. This might be the losing ways talking, but I’m re-thinking the whole “only draft hitting, wait for starting pitching later” idea. Watching guys like Verlander, Sabathia, Halladay, and Cliff Lee just dominate start after start really makes me want just ONE guy who I can absolutely rely on. I’ll compromise and see if one MONSTER pitcher might help out next year.
5. Pay attention during the shortened all-star week. This is just for pride; I’m now 5-23 in all-star weeks all-time in my key league: time to right that train.
Week 1 NFL picks against the spread.
They say the early weeks in the NFL season are the ones most ripe for bettors to make money, because the oddsmakers don’t know which teams are good yet, and the general public (who basically are the ones setting the odds) just bet based on names of the teams, not the actual teams as they exist. Good concept, except I really don’t know which teams are good yet, neither. Here are some educated guesses against the spread; let’s see how I do.
(picks in bold)
New Orleans +4 at Green Bay: Thought Saints were overrated last season cuz they lost to Browns and Seahawks, but I think it may be a case of being surprised and playing down to the competition + getting up for big games like the Falcons and Steelers. Green Bay should be overbet as the champs; don’t forget how bad the Packers struggled in the preseason, barely getting into the playoffs as 10-6. Even matchup on paper; I’ll take the 4 points.
Vikings +8.5 at Chargers: remember last season the 2 teams who were really talented but just couldn’t win? Yea, those were the Vikings and Cowboys. Bet against both and you would have made a fortune. But this year, I think that same talent makes them good picks as underdogs, especially against a Charger team that STINKS, I mean STINKS in September. O how short fans’ memories are.
Indy +8.5 at Houston: I’m not picking this, but 2 weeks ago I mentioned to my buddy Brother Mouzone that I would take Houston -3 v. Indy even WITH Peyton playing, and now obviously we hear Peyton is doubtful for the game. Sigh. Opportunity lost; potential millions that could have been won.
St. Louis +5 v. Philadelphia: Yes, Philly has Michael Vick. Yes, they just signed Nmamdi Asomugha. Yes, the Rams sucked last year (7-9). Yes, Philly looks like the best team in the NFL…on paper. A lot of high expectations for the Eagles, but their record is 0-0 just like anybody else, and the Rams as a home dog with 5 points seems like a real bargain, especially if they improve like they should and are a playoff team…. This will look like a steal at the end of the season.
NY Jets -4.5 v. Dallas: Yes, finally, I picked a favorite. I mentioned to my buddy that I could have made a living betting against USC, Notre Dame, and the Cowboys (big name programs that America likes and likes betting on). And…….USC and Notre Dame both looked horrible over the weekend and both missed covering by 20+ points. Dallas has Tony Romo back, but lost 2 Pro Bowl O-lineman. Seems like one step forward, 2 steps back for me. A.k.a. subtraction by subtraction.
Tampa Bay -1.5 v. Detroit: You’re telling me Detroit, the historically bad team and 2-10 team until they made an infathomible run at the end of season, is basically regarded as the BETTER TEAM on the road, only getting 1.5 points? Maybe it’s cuz the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason, maybe it’s cuz Matthew Stafford’s back, maybe it’s cuz the Lions have won 8 straight dating back to last season, but somebody’s got some wrong information about the Lions. I will bet against them. Plus I LOVE me some Josh Freeman.
Washington +3 v. New York Giants
So confident about this I’m making this my The WALKING DEAD LOCK. (Walking Dead soon to come back this fall on AMC…. Let’s hope it’s good). The Giants look like the walking dead so far this season, as they’re already without Osi Umeniyora for the opener, Eli’s struggling (although maybe not as bad as his older brother), injuries left and right. Call me crazy for picking a team with Rex Grossman as QB, but he looked good in the 3rd preseason game (historically an accurate gauge of performance) and the Skins always have talent on Defense.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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