Sunday, August 30, 2009

Prognosticating Fantasy Football, a.k.a. Rolling the Dice...

You know, a few years ago I would be deliriously looking forward to this post. Eyes bloodshot from reading all the fantasy football cheatsheats, mind racing from devouring every piece of information I could find, finger hurting from clicking on Shaun Alexander's stats all the time, mouth salivating at the thought of stealing Clinton Portis in the late first-round, I would be all over this. After all, fantasy football was my maiden voyage into the mystical realm of fantasy sports. and I have never left. However, my course has admittedly shifted a bit to basketball and baseball, while millions of football fanatics turn to it every year as a source of relief from one's home football team, and as a source of soothing their gambling needs (which I condone, but it happens).

What I've realized (and reiterated time and time again on this blog) is that fantasy football is more a roll of a dice, a shot in the dark, a prayer that your #1 RB won't blow out his MCL in Week 2. Thing happen week to week, guys are picked up from off the street by teams (mostly by Denver) and made into the feature back, guys you haven't even heard of sub in and toss up 4-TD games....it's crazy, but I still love it.

Here are my gut feelings/ analytically-supported findings (with the VERY STRONG precaution that I'm not responsible for them):

1.) DeAngelo Williams fits my "don't draft immediately after he's had his career year" criterion, but what I'm more worried about is how much playing time he gets w/ Jonathan Stewart there, and if there's any question about that, he shouldn't be your #1 RB. Avoid.

2.) Ronnie Brown: Picking the best player is so crucial in fantasy football, I know plenty of years where someone's invested on a player "in the best situation" and then found the guy playing themselves out of position cuz they didn't have the skills to start with. Folks, Ronnie Brown has the skills. And he's only 27.

3.) Peyton Manning: Am I missing something here? He had 4 less TD's last year and people calling it the apocalypse, never mind the guaranteed 4000 yards and eliteness. If you're drafti this guy after Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Thomas, or Aaron Rodgers!!!!?????, you're kidding yourself.

4.) Every year I'm reminded that football is a young man's sport, especially at the RB position. (Last year, Matt Forte KILLED me). I'd say it's like casting cute kids for toothpaste commericals, the younger the better. That's why Ray Rice comes to mind, Knowshon Moreno is enticing, and Donald Brown seems like one Addai injury away from stardom. I'd say snag one of these guys late and just sit there w/ them like a fat cat.

5.) Finally, I make this recommendation every year, and this year's no different: I personally will be making my appearance at my Fantasy Football draft with an Antonio Gates jersey on. 8-5, GATES, BABY! F'real though, he's still good, still has his QB, and might actually do everything w/ healthy body parts this year.

Ahh, football. Still got me going, after all these years.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

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