Here we go, peeps, March Madness time- albeit about a week later this year, March Madness is upon us, and we got about 72 hours to fill out those brackets before thursday's games kick off.
Here our suggestions I wanna make for those filling out brackets:
a.) Never, never, go with my pick to win it all. I started doing brackets in 2001, and out of all those years where likely champions did actually win, I have NEVER picked the right one. I have always "had a hunch" about somebody, or even told somebody i might pick a certain team, but when it has come down to filling out brackets, or giving my official pick for winner, I've NEVER been right. Some may think i'm due, but i doubt it.
With that said, i'll give u my winner at the bottom of the page.
b.) One thing that I HAVE gotten right since my 2nd year is the 8-9 games. I haven't gotten them all right, per se, but there's a weird mathematical pattern that goes on with these games. You'd think these would be the hardest to pick with practically even teams that the selection committee just threw together w/o regard for the higher, but look closely. Go back to 2003 and look at who's won the majority of the games every year. In 2003, 3 of the 4 #9 seeds won, 2004 most of the 8 seeds won, 2005 back to 9 seeds, 2006 8 seeds, and so on. This has worked to perfection since then, so every year I get at least 3 out of 4 right on the 8-9's because of this.
So now you know my secret. To save you some time, this year it's the #8 seeds' turn.
c.) Expect more upsets than last year. Well, yea, duh. But seriously, last year was so upset-free in the first free rounds that it was almost boring. The fact that higher-seeded teems won, though, was actually an anomaly. Most years, the proability says it's actually LIKELY that they'll be upsets. However, don't go crazy. It's like poker, 70% you got it, 30% bluff. I'd say the 8-9 and 7-10's are crapshoots, you can pick either way, 6-11 I'd maybe pick 1 or 2 upsets at most, 5-12 and 4-13 I'd go with one upset each and just stick with it. There's upsets of 2's and 3's occasionally, but seldom enough not to bet on it.
d.) Don't go for another George Mason. Seriously, neither South Alabama nor winthrop is going to the final four this year. George Mason was like a once-in-a-decade thing. Usually by the 2nd weekends talent and the loaded programs take over.
More advice on picking brackets later. Notice how I didn't really analyze any teams. Brackets are sometimes dominated by math and probability, is my explanation. That and the fact that I haven't followed college buckets that closely this year cuz the Illini sucked.
Also w/ March Madness comes Fantasy MLB drafts, which can be even more maddening than cinderellas and bubbles bursting. I just recently did my first draft in a yahoo! winners league and it's maddening to me that......
For one, Ryan Braun is being drafted so high. As a prominent member of the fantasy community (Ha), or at least a participant in yahoo! public leagues, I am embarrassed by how early ryan braun is going. I don't care if ryan braun becomes the next alex rodriguez this season, he should NOT be being drafted this high. It's really violating one of the primary rules of fantasy: Do NOT draft high based on one really good season. And braun didn't even play a whole season last year. Sure, his #'s were incredible, but this is a 2nd-year player, arguably ROOKIE, that hasn't proved at all that he can do it again.
This goes back to the CENTRAL TENET of baseball that everyone needs to understand: You draft guys based on what they're gonna do for you IN THE FUTURE, not what they did last year. Guys, stop salivating over what Ryan Braun did for you last season, let those chops run dry a bit and think with another part of your head. Sure, this guy's a rookie, and "he's got great potential," but think about it: How many guys come up and go all gangbusters like this and are able to sustain it? It's baseball, guys, braun has to play 162 games this season when he has to deal w/ constant wear and tear, pressure of repeating what he did last year, making up for his shoddy defense, prolonged droughts where he questions whether he ever knew how to bat, and ESPECIALLY opposing pitchers adjusting to him and attacking his weaknesses. Plus, who knows what a long winter of inactivity did to him. As opposed to other guys being drafted BEHIND braun, like aramis ramirez, derek jeter, carlos lee, I KNOW what a long winter of inactivity will do to them: very little, and they've proven it. Ryan braun has not, and that at its base is why he is nothing more than a 4th-round pick to me. Not the 14th overall pick or even higher.
Get your head outta your ass, brandon funston. You too, andy behrens. You guys should be ashamed of yourselves for ranking braun so high. I'd bet you guys that a-ram has a better season than braun, but I dunno if you'd take me seriously.
Anyway, my pick for the NCAA tournament winner is Kansas. I've been burned by them many times in the past, including last year when they got destroyed by UCLA, but there you go. Take it or leave it.
-Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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