Taking Risks

I don’t like taking risks. I don’t like trying new food whose taste I’m not sure about. When I’m at the end of a line of a roller coaster and I don’t know what’s about to happen, I REALLY don’t like it.

In life we make risk-reward assessments every day, every hour, every moment. By the time we’re adults it would seem logical that we would be better at making risk-reward judgments, but in my case it’s not always so. For example, getting in the car and using a cell phone at all is probably a TERRIBLE idea and puts one at risk by over 100%, with a very low reward utility of being able to call/ text in the car. Driving a car at all is probably a bad idea, given the risk of dying in a fatal crash vs. getting somewhere using safer modes of transport like bus and train (I know, not practical for many occasions). Still, I think it’s important sometimes to take a step back and assess certain decisions that we make. There’s also various divisions of risk-taking that I can see, where some are personal well-being based, some are financial based, some are satisfaction-based, some are Game Theory based.

Now in fantasy football and some other arenas (other than “general life” decisions because you only get one life), it pays to take some risk. Especially in a fantasy football one-week playoff where you are playing a superior team, it can be rewarding to take a certain amount of risk. Don’t like Frank Gore’s guaranteed but unspectacular 15 carries a game? Take a more adventurous option like Latavius Murray or Jeremy Hill (less guaranteed carries, but more ability to break out in a big way). Basically, anything that you have a lot of (meals left in your lifetime, or fantasy teams that you’re able to play), it’s a good thing to take a risk.

 

In dodgeball, the idea of a catch is usually a good idea. By going for a catch, one risks getting hit by a ball and therefore going “out” in exchange for the chance to make a catch, getting the thrower out and having another teammate come in. The idea of a “catch” is great for the team but a much murkier assessment for an individual player. Is my loyalty to my team worth me putting myself on the line to improve it? Again, dodgeball is like baseball, it’s a very high-risk game just because each individual play can mean so much. In baseball, I’ve always wondered whether hitters go up to the plate looking to hit a home run or looking to get a hit. I think it differs drastically for different hitters and what the count is, but on a fundamental level I think getting that home run is always going to be logically enough of a reward to justify sacrificing hits (at least so says Moneyball). I think dodgeball is the same way most of the time: go for catches. ASSESSMENT: embrace risk.  

 

Fantasy football risks and dodgeball risks are relatively easy to assess because there’s a true outcome: a number-based system that allows one to quantify what the risk is as opposed to the reward. Life risks, although much more significant, are usually pretty easy to quantify in terms of “This is how likely you are to die” and “this is how happy you can get if you take on this possibility of dying.”

The toughest risk assessment, in my opinion, might be the one that I’m facing now: the risk/ reward of leaving one’s current position and going to a new position. There are SO MANY different factors that came into play here from overall satisfaction, use of time (one of the most important risks is opportunity cost risk- we all are given only a certain amount of poker chips in terms of life choices) and yes, wage/ salary. The wage/ salary is definitely a quantifiable factor, but money is in itself innately has various values for different people- some people already have more money than others, it’s easier for some people to make money than others, some people need more money to be happier than others. Therefore, the risk of going to a new position has to consider the new experiences, the new money, the new experience gained vs. the continuousness and stability at one’s old position, knowing exactly what one has, like being on the ground safe and sound at an amusement park knowing that your stomach is not going to feel queasy or that you’ll be terrified beyond belief. Sometimes, though, that’s what some people need: the rush of newness, the delving into the unknown with the hope that whatever comes out is enjoyable and works out better, like a rollercoaster sliding through the dark tunnels. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t, but that’s risk. The only way to find out is to get on the rollercoaster.

 

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan