Those who know me know I like gambling. Some would say I "have a gambling problem," but to that I say, you only have a problem if you can't admit to having a problem. And I don't have a problem.
Anyway, I'll be in Vegas this weekend (for about the umpteenth time, but it keeps me coming back!) and just wanted to do a post on my "best bets"- betting tips I've accumulated over the years as well as current trends that you can apply RIGHT NOW!!!!!
1.) Don't play craps. That game will destroy you. (Or at least, it destroys me).
2.) Bet against the Lakers. It's a nobrainer. If I had bet against the Lakers in every game since the season started, I'd be a very rich man right now.
3.) The betting lines don't always reflect the actual percentages of who the "bookies" think will win, they sometimes (and I would argue most of the time) reflect how the public thinks about teams, and the bookies want action on both sides of the bet (so that they can just make their commission money) so they move the line against the team that the public is heavily betting on. I've probably made this point before, but I NEVER bet on very public teams : Dallas Cowboys, L.A. Lakers, USC Trojans (sorry guys), Duke basketball, etc., etc.
Lesson combo of #2 and #3: the Lakers are really bad right now, but you can still get plenty of "value" betting against them: For example, tonight, the 17-25 Lakers play the 23-19 Utah Jazz (a solid if unspectacular team) and the Lakers are FAVORED by -4.5. Lakers have lost 10 of 12 and just recently had a "loud" closed door meeting; Utah on a 4 game winning streak. That is 4.5 free points. I'd argue the Jazz have at least a 50-50 shot of WINNING the game, much less covering the 4.5 points. I have instructed my group to get a move on so I can get to Vegas before the 7:30PM tip.
4.) Home Dogs. Especially home dogs going against defending champions, teams that have over promoted stars, teams that they have a rivalry against, ranked teams in college basketball, teams that they might "get up" for.
5.) Don't fall for "the flavor of the month." Teams or players that are "hot" right now often get too much love. I stay away from "cinderella success stories," long winning streaks, and ESPN darlings. Those things are reserved for movies. Betting is a very grim, very desolate reality. If anything, I see a team that has a long winning streak and bet against them. Hard.
6.) "Any other player" or "any other result" is what you want. Vegas often gives you certain scenarios during prop bets that they WANT you to take. Don't fall for it. It's like you're at the grocery store and you're buying cereal. Why are the name brands so much more expensive? It's not they're that much more tasty or valuable; the extra money you're paying is for the brand name of that product. I HATE paying for brand names. Speaking of which, how much money have people lost in the last 6 months for Apple stock, supposedly the most stable and best company in the world? Gosh I wish I could get that money back.
7.) Close your eyes and think of a happy place; a bustling sports town with a rich history. Stop thinking about that team. Now start thinking of the exact OPPOSITE: a desolate town with no sports history that gets no love on SportsCenter that's barely on the sports map. That's the team you want to bet on. Favorite teams to bet on over the years: Golden State Warriors, Wisconsin Badgers basketball, Oregon State Beavers, Vanderbilt Commodores, Milwaukee Bucks, etc., etc. etc.
8.) Do you know which team Vegas has right now as the odds-on favorite to reach the World Series from the AL? (Drumrolll...........) Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2013 Toronto Blue Jays. Yup, the Jays added a lot of pieces over the offseason like Josey Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey..........and they weren't bad last year. But gosh the odds-on favorite for a team that hasn't made the playoffs this millenium, have a suspect bullpen, last time I checked still played in the AL East? Have perspective. Avoid hype. Make money.
9.) And finally In life, bet on education, hard work, and dedication. Those are really the best bets. O and your family; they'll always be there for you. Your sports team will not (and especially not when you need a cover).
10.) O and never bet more than you can afford. This applies both in betting and in life.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
No comments:
Post a Comment