Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Robert's Epic Baseball Stadium Road Trip!


Saturday afternoon in Kansas City's kaufmann stadium. Hector Santiago v yordano Ventura. Ventura just lights up the gun, hitting 99 and 98 on a few occasions. Kaufmann doesn't really look like a pitchers park, just 330 down the line and even dimensions. Guess it's more about the way the ball carries. James shields bobblehead is nice, but the weather is not and thunderstorms delay the game starting in the bottom of the 3rd. Not before mike trout demonstrates how great he is, though, with a couple great running catches. The rain forces us to watch the end of Brazil and chile, in which chile almost shocks the world but ultimately comes up short in pks. Best food: pulled pork sandwich. Best feature: continuous fountains even during rain, with changing configurations. I like fountains.


Sunday, June 29. Milwaukee v Colorado. Miller park. Gallardo v Delarosa. Parking not great here, but stadium is very legit. Retractable roof available in 15 minutes time, Bernie's dugout where the mascot slides down on brewer homers ( today provided by the Hebrew hammer). Unfortunately Rockies have much more offense and Gallardo gets rocked, even yielding a hit to the opposing pitcher. Best food: sky blue lemonade( alcoholic). Quick note: don't sit in the sunny parts of the stadium, it gets HOT.
Head towards Minnesota after, stop at Madison, wi. Home to the no. 1 party school in America, u of Wisconsin. Much like ut Austin, I am jealous of the people who go here. Great lakeside view on a summer evening. Doesn't get dark til 930. This is what road trippin is all about!

 

Monday. June 30th. Twins v royals target field. Beautiful night for baseball. Danny Duffy v someone named pino. Best seats I have ever sat in as we are literally on top of the twins dugout and within speaking distance to the twins hitters in the on deck circle. Best feature of target field: the entrance is just majestic full of scenery and lighted water effects and statues of legendary twins. Also the fact it's not the metrodome, which apparently was a Kc gets off to an early start and never looks back, aided by a home run by sal Perez.

The mall of America is great, btw, and definitely worth checking out. Surrounded by a fully indoor amusement park, it's got all the stores you've ever seen in a mall and more, plus a wedding chapel and aquarium. It is no joke. One can get lost in there, as well as get lost in the mirror maze on the 2nd floor of the southeast section.

Tuesday. July 1. Doubleheader angels v white sox due to a rainout the previous night. Noesi v Richards game 1 we arrive a little later, but angels win 8-4 on homers by trout, pujols, and Hamilton, the trifecta. In the nightcap, weaver v Carroll, angels win another relative slugfest, 7-5. An alarming trend happening where home teams are 0-5 so far in games I've attended. Lot of homer being hit, though. Best feature of us cellular: fireworks before the game and after each white sox home run. Otherwise pretty ordinary stadium.

Earlier in the day we take the wrigley field stadium tour, goin throughout the "national treasure " that is wrigley field. I tend to not get too sentimental about it all, and I think it's not a great facility. I can't imagine players love it, and as a fan I'm underwhelmed. Traditional to me is a euphemism for old. Give them credit, they still do a great job of selling that "tradition."

Wednesday, July 2. Detroit tigers v Oakland a's. Verlander v Chavez. Easily the most "marquee" matchup on the road trip. Comerica has a great view of downtown Detroit and has about a million stone tigers circling the stadium. Pretty interesting stuff, but I personally like the Chevrolet fountain tha goes off each time th tigers score, but it actually varies in water spewed depending on the importance of the runs scored. When the tigers go up 9-2 when the game had effectively been decided, it's as if there's a drought. The massive statues in the back of legends is a nice touch as well, and coming out of the stadium it's a short walk around detroit's downtown, which seems relatively empty, although we have enough time to play human size chess, and a friendly game of bags (free!)

Wednesday night. Toledo mud hens v Columbus clippers. Our bonus minor league game in Toledo between the triple a affiliates of the tigers and Indians. Hotel where we stay gives out tickets right behind the plate, and we watch tigers prospect Robbie ray do ok for 6 innings. Lots of mascots, cheap beer, great setting for a minor league game. We even see a modern day crash Davis, 35 year old mike hessman. Toledo is a "quaint" city that seems much cleaner than it's big brother Detroit with a great river views. My friend and I wander around the ballpark after the game and stop at a bar where several minor leaguers are relaxin after the game, including dynamic Indians prospect Danny Salazar, he of the 100 mph fastball. I shook the hand of a man who throws 100 mph and got a picture. Cool story and a great day, another in a line of great days on this road trip.

 

Thursday night. Pittsburgh v. Arizona. McCarthy v Worley. We spend the afternoon in downtown Pittsburgh, a beautiful landscape full of bridges and the 3 rivers of the ohio, allegheny, and

The Carnegie science center is mainly for kids but still pretty cool for your average museum. Admission included entrance to one of the few submarines in America available for viewing. All of pittsburgh's major sports venues are adjacent to the river with great views, pnc park included. We didn't get to see the Jolly Roger raised this day because the diamondbacks scored 7 in the 9th to cement a 10-2 win even after Vance Worley hurls 5 innings of no hit ball. Best feature: cutout pirates grass logo in center field. Looking out over downtown Pittsburgh and watching the boats aseembled outside the stadium on an off chance of a "bowser blast" (home run hit over the right field wall into the allegheny) reminds me why I came in this trip: taking the best features of each city and just enjoying it.

Friday, July 4. Cleveland's progressive field. Indians v royals. Tomlin v Ventura. Fourth of July America's birthday.  Cleveland has the rock and roll hall of fame, but I'm not a big fan of rock music and am more interested in the wedding with cool outfits happening outside. A quaint city with some history and style but I get more of a sense tha it's got a lot of factories. The field itself is nice, but no special features that make you go wow! The Indians follow the trend of most home teams on this trip by failing to score until the 9th when michael Brantley finally puts one over the right field wall. Fireworks for this irrelevant homer is followed by one of the more spectacular fireworks displays I've ever seen. Cleveland, you were a cool city, but I can see why lebron left; in Miami there are other attractions; in Cleveland he would be the attraction.

Saturday afternoon. Reds v brewers at great American ballpark. Garza v bailey. Great American has a surprisingly nice view of the river and various bridges in the area. Give reds fans credit, not many people go to section 109 to catch the end of the exciting finish to Costa Rica v Netherlands in th World Cup, won by Netherlands in penalty kicks on what my friend described as a Julie the cat performance from te netherlands's backup goalie. Great game, and honestly more exciting than the 1-0 snoozefest we are subjected to. That's baseball. The Cincinnati hall of game is a nice intro to the game, including the standard hall of game players but also a "wall of balls" for all the 4200 plus career hits for Pete rose.

Absolutely tired from a pretty draining 10 days, we stumble into St. Louis on Saturday night to a casino. Home field! The arch is really a nice architectural masterpiece that stands out. If there's one thing I've learned from this city to city road trip, it's that you need something to stand out in people's minds, a signature landmark that is different from anything else you've seen. It doesn't have to be that spectacular or even expensive to build; it's just gotta be unique. For Busch that unique feature is possibly the red seats, or the redone Big Mac land, or the close-to-the-field center field.

We wake up really late after a long night to catch the end of roger federer and Novak djokovic's epic match in the Wimbledon final. Next trip for me: us open?

Sunday, July 6. Cardinals marlins at the new Busch stadium. Gonzalez v Alvarez. The marlins take an insurmountable lead and we clear the stadium quickly afterwards to explore the city. The summer humidity has finally caught up to us as this is the worst weather day of the trip. It gets hot and sticky in the Midwest, as might be expected. Best feature of Busch stadium: the upper deck has a great view of downtown and the arch, and the fans are very very knowledgable and loyal, probably from years of success and winning. Not this day, though, as the marlins win 8-3 and brings my road trip record to 1-9 for the home teams or 9-1 depending on how you look at it.

So ends my 2014 baseball road trip, one full o adventure, baseball, and driving. A trip I will probably never take again but as with most vacations, one it will look back on fondly in the future as a time I was happy, spontaneous, and free.
Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

The Secret to Streaming


If you don’t play fantasy baseball, please skip to the next post. If you do play fantasy baseball, there might not be a more important article you’ve ever read in your life.

 

“Streaming” pitchers is a fantasy baseball term used to describe picking up a pitcher from the waiver wire specifically to play him for his upcoming scheduled start (sometimes for the upcoming 2-start week). Inherently a streamed pitcher is one who’s supposedly not that good because he was not owned by any manager in the league, and also you’re only relying on him for that one specific start, making no long term plans for the future. Fantasy owners aren’t starting a 401K plan for that pitcher or anything. It’s usually done to exploit a certain matchup play against a bad team or because a pitcher is hot, areas which I will delve into now, giving you the most important factors in streaming a pitcher.  

Before I proceed however, disclaimer is necessary: Streaming is not for everyone. It is not for the faint of heart. Any time you “stream” a pitcher, there is a non-zero chance that pitcher will destroy your ERA and WHIP in the most devastating of fashions, without adding anything of value in terms of wins or strikeouts. That is the inherent danger of starting pitching: They have the most influence on your team per start. They can go a complete game shutout with 15 K’s or on the other spectrum, go 1.2 IP of 10 ER, 13 baserunner ball. The hope is over the course of many streamed starts you’ll get a profit from streaming pitchers by getting more of the good starts than the bad starts, but by no means is each start automatically a “good outing.” There are many outings that are just pure evil, and there’s no telling which ones they will be. Fair warning.

1.)    The quality of the pitcher himself: This is the most important. Any major league lineup can feast on a major league pitcher if he is not on his game. There are just certain pitchers who you can NEVER rely on, no matter the matchup, no matter how hot they are, no matter if they just got a new pitching coach. Modern- day examples of streamers who fit this category: Edinson Volquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edwin Jackson. NEVER trust these guys.

2.)    The quality of the lineup the pitcher is facing: the benefit of streaming a pitcher is you know which lineup he will face and how that lineup has done recently. Before streaming, one should ALWAYS pull up the game logs of the lineup he is facing and check out the last 5 games or so. See if that team is scoring runs, taking walks, has a hot hitter, is good against a certain handedness, etc., etc. There are just some teams that are good to stream against. Modern day example: San Diego Padres (since like 2006), Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets. On the flip side, of course, try to AVOID streaming against good lineups, including this year’s Oakland A’s, Toronto Blue Jays, etc.

3.)    Whether the lineup strikes out. This could be 2A, but a strikeout-prone lineup is a great target to go after, like this year’s Atlanta Braves.

4.)    Whether the pitcher is “hot.” Sometimes pitchers just get on a groove and are pitching really well. This can continue for a while like a month or two, like Bartolo Colon or Jake Arrieta right now. But don’t be fooled; pitchers can cool off immediately and catastrophically, going from a 0 ER gem to an 8ER unmitigated disaster in the next start. (See Edison Volquez rule about not starting certain pitchers EVER).

5.)    Picking pitchers who just got lit up. May be counterintuitive, but for some reason I find that after a really bad outing, pitchers’ luck tends to even out, they figure something out, basically things can’t get any worse, they’re due, whatever it is, but pitchers tend to throw a good outing after a REALLY bad one.

6.)    AL or NL. This matters. If it’s in an AL ballpark, you’re adding another legitimate hitter (usually one of the team’s best hitters) instead of the pitcher. I prefer NL pitchers if I can help it.

7.)    Home field. This matters, however counterintuitive. Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN recently did a study that shows MLB pitchers, for whatever reason, fare better at home than on the road, even if one’s home park is like an extreme hitter’s park. It could be the home cooking from the night before, playing in front of a home crowd jacks them up, they’re used to the environment and routine when playing at home, whatever it is, I slightly prefer home starts to road starts.

8.)    Ballpark- this might be more important than having home field, but definitely get pitchers pitching in Petco Park, AT&T Park, Safeco Field, Marlins Field, etc. and avoid pitching hells like Coors Field, Fenway, Yankee Stadium, etc.  These ballpark factors can be easily found on ESPN and is nothing special that I’m spelling.

9.)    Team defense: the better the defense, the more mistakes they can cover up for a pitcher. A good SS is a good start for having a good defense. Modern day good defenses include Atlanta (Simmons), San Francisco (Crawford), Tampa Bay (Escobar).

10.) Quality of the opposing starting pitcher. Definitely doesn’t always work, but try to go up against rookie pitchers, bad pitchers, struggling pitchers, journeyman pitchers, whatever. Don’t go up against Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Jose Fernandez, or other comparably elite pitchers.

11.) Quality of the pitcher’s team offense. Related to the quality of the opposing starting pitcher, and depends on how bad you want a W. If just looking for ERA and WHIP, don’t look at it too much. In a streaming pitcher’s expected performance I value ERA, WHIP, K, and W, in that order. Don’t chase the W at the expense of other categories unless those other categories are out of play (head-to-head leagues).

There’s some other minor factors, but you get the point. And remember, you’re not going to satisfy all these categories! Having No. 1 is nice, but if you can’t have 1 but can get 2, 3, and 4, that’s fine too! Just try to keep all of these factors in mind before you haphazardly dip into the streaming pool. There are diamonds in the rough, you just gotta find them!

I highly recommend streaming. If you follow the steps shown above, you’ll suffer some bumps, some bruises, but over the course of time and many streaming efforts your fantasy team will benefit over time, and you’ll develop your own system of streaming (mine is just a sample, build your own). And if you’re lucky, one of the times you stream, you get the Holy Grail of streaming, a streamed no-hitter through 8IP (Tim Lincecum vs. San Diego! Holy cow!) for your team when facing a bitter division rival. I LOVE THIS GAME!

 

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Friday, June 20, 2014

A Walking Contradiction


2 sides of the human condition. I’m a walking contradiction. Today we look at 2 sides of how I reflect the human condition: Benevolence and Jealousy.

When I go to bed at night, I don’t always, but I try to remember to wish for good things to happen in the world. I’m not religious, but I am spiritual (a term that Match.com uses to pair people up, coincidentally) in that I think there is something of a higher power, but not necessarily what the organized religions is. I could be wrong, I could be right, I don’t stress about it, but if there is any miniscule chance that my wishing something good happens to someone else out there will help, I’ll take that time to send out happy thoughts. I hope that other people find the success they’ve been searching for, that the world is strewn of evil, crimes, injustice, and corruption, that those who are desperate for something find that something, I hope for happiness. I usually focus on hoping that those who don’t deserve to be evicted, harmed, damaged, or stolen from don’t, usually working on those that are less fortunate than me. OK sometimes I do hope that my fantasy baseball team does well or I’ll have a good dodgeball game the next day, but I would sacrifice that if something really good happened to someone else or the world in general.

On the contrary, despite being fully aware that I am one of the more privileged members of society and that I’ve lived a life of luxury and gotten very lucky in the things that matter the most, during the daytime I have a lot of selfish thoughts. Jealousy comes in. I wish all the time that I could be, for  one month or one week or for even just a day, someone who is wanted. I think how it’s not fair that really attractive people get all the love, whether they deserve it or not. And it’s not like those guys get some attention, and I get attention from others. It doesn’t work that way. Really attractive people get attention from everyone because the world’s objective view of what is attractive is very similar. I understand sometimes that I get the hand that I’m dealt, but even in bridge or hearts you play one hand and get dealt a different one. I don’t’, I never wake up one day and have better skin or have double eyelobes or look like Brad Pitt (who’s the hot trending stud for women nowadays? Ryan Gosling?) I want to be a catch for someone, to be the best for someone that someone can be proud they’re with. That might happen one day, but it’s gonna take a lot of work.

Two sides of myself. Two sides of the human condition. Benevolence and Jealousy. A walking contradiction.

 

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Most Popular Sport in the World


As much as I like Spelling Bee coverage and Hot Dog eating contests, I understand that those “competitions” are not that popular in America, much less in the world. I wouldn’t be able to go to random parts of the world and have other people like those competitions. Every 4 years though, there comes something that

 

The World Cup, from the people that I talk to, is bigger than the Olympics. The Olympics features a lot of different sports that, let’s face it, aren’t that popular. (Anyway watch competitive archery or track and field anymore?) Basketball is probably the biggest draw of the Olympics, and that gets deflated by the US’s dominance as well as lack of intensity. The importance of the Olympics is surely important for the players themselves, but in terms of the casual viewer’s “Gold Medal Count” radar it’s barely a blip, a gold medal that is worth just as much as team handball or Pommel Horse.

The World Cup, though, is different. Every game is crucially important. The field’s already narrowed down to 32 teams through qualifying matches, but among those 32 there’s only 3 games of a “regular season” group play and then it goes into the knockout stages. That’s intense. The best players in the world gear up for the tournament, and winning one is a real source of pride. Literally billons of people are watching the World Cup final. Of all the sports events in the world, including the NBA Finals, the Super Bowl, the Olympics, Champions League, etc., etc., the World Cup Final is probably the highest rated of all. Soccer is truly an international sport, not just confined to one country like the U.S.’s major 3. Here’s some other pluses.

 

1.)    Every continent in the world is represented. It’s actually pretty refreshing to see Eastern power Japan, for example, take on someone from the other side of the world like the Ivory Coast. It first of all refreshes everyone’s memory that the Ivory Coast exists and raises our awareness to countries like Cameroon, Colombia, Iran, etc., but it also pits these teams together, with contrasting styles and different cultures clashing on a soccer pitch.

2.)    The game’s over in 2 hours. 45 minute halfs, 30 minute halftime, and that’s a wrap, folks. Ties are allowed in group play, lending to a finite amount of time one has to devote to it. Baseball can go on for a LONG TIME.

3.)    No commercials! That’s really awesome. I can’t think of one sport nowadays that’s not interrupted by the commercial. There’s actually only 12 minutes of real action in a typical NFL game, and it spans itself over 3 hours. Soccer has 90 minutes + of action spanned over 90 minutes. It’s continuous. You can gauge the momentum of the game without interruption. And there’s never a “wait I just flipped to the channel and there’s nothing” moment.

4.)    People who you thought knew nothing about sports come out of the woodwork.

5.)    Community- water cooler talk, people on the streets, at the gym, wherever, the World Cup lends itself as a great conversation starter for almost anybody. During that month of the World Cup, there’s a game almost every day that people can talk about and feel like we’re all watching the same thing. There’s a definite excitement in my breakroom at work during lunches watching soccer matches, where I can feel us bonding, much more than discussing work can.
6.) Everyone has a team, a dog in the fight, some skin in the game. Well, that reminds  guess I don't have a team. China's never in it and when they are, they don't score a goal and allow the other team to score MULTIPLE goals. Japan's in it.....I appreciate their culture. US? Yes, a fun story but from what I'm told "has no chance." Lots of people in the US have secondary teams like England or Brazil or just Team Messi. Guess one of these years I should pick an allegiance.

This is also a sport where I have no basis to guess who will win and what the odds should be. Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, Germany, U.S., who will win? Beats me. Wayne Rooney always struggles in international tournaments? Who’s that? Fernando Suarez has a bad reputation for flopping? OK, I’ll watch for that. The U.S. is in the Group of Death? Sounds tough. I’d just like to sit back and watch.

And even after this year’s World Cup, you know what I’m kind of looking forward to? The Women’s World Cup, 2015. .
 
 
* Note about the San Antonio Spurs: Congrats to the San Antonio Spurs. I'm not really a fan due to loyalty for the Chicago Bulls, but I do appreciate the Spurs's run because similar to the Bulls, they did not rely on overwhelming talent, they did not give one guy the ball all the time, they played as a team and utilized great role players like Boris Diaw and Patty Mills, guys who wouldn't stand out on a basketball court and you wouldn't think are basketball players except they played a HUGE role in the Spurs's win. It was all about precision, skill, and "playing basketball the right way." I believe that is the purest of basketball and wish that every team could play the way they play, including any team I'm on. Unfortunatley like the Heat and a lot of other teams out there, basketball becomes a lot about "I'm the best player, give me the ball" and about sheer talent, which is like Goliath beating on David. Good for the Spurs that they proved you can win without all the talent in the world.
 
Fantasize on,
 
Robert Yan

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Weird Reasons I Can't Sleep


 

Recently I’ve had several bouts of being unable to sleep, which is strange because I’m usually a very sound sleeper and can pass out within 2 minutes of closing my eyes. Sometimes I fall asleep even when I don’t want to! So all the more surprising why I can’t fall asleep sometimes, and drawing on my experiences, I’ve deciphered some of the reasons. Pay attention, because these might apply to you, and you can avoid all of the turning, tossing, lamenting, and fretting over lost time because I’m lying in bed and doing nothing.

 

1.)    I’m too nervous/ excited about something coming up the next day. Ex: taking the LSAT (law school admission test) the night before. Suggested remedy: don’t think about it so much. Hard to implement. Probably drugs are required. Actually, pills are probably a useful remedy in all of these situations.

2.)    Not being tired enough……this actually happens because you don’t exercise enough or you didn’t go outside for the whole day. Suggested remedy: Exercise every day, that way you don’t forget to do it.

3.)    Worrying about fantasy baseball- I’ve actually heard this one. Worred about whether Adam Wainwright will have Tommy John surgery, for example, or if Carlos Gonzalez will ever reach his potential, would be concerns that keep fantasy managers up late at night. Suggested remedy: consult fantasy sports blogs and get professional help.

4.)    Your sleep schedule is so messed up that your body doesn’t know what to do anymore. This happens if you go on weekend Vegas excursions or pulling all-nighters in advance of important exams. Also common for overseas travelers adjusting to the time difference, aka jet lag. Suggested remedy: try to maintain a healthy schedule and get back to waking up at a certain time every day.

5.)    You’re secretly hungry but your stomach/brain doesn’t register it. You know how you fall asleep easier after a big meal? Well I think the opposite also applies, where not getting enough to eat keeps you up, your body needing something to put it to rest. Suggested remedy: well scheduled meal times.

6.)    The snowball effect: you get frustrated from not being able to sleep. Not sure if this is just coincidence or what, but certainly been long nights of wondering “Why can’t I sleep?” that cause even more anxiety and lack of sleep. Suggested remedy: Take a deep breath, count to 100 slowly. Think of nothing but those numbers or sheep. Rinse and repeat.

7.)    It’s too hot in here! (Or too cold) for those not sensitive enough to temperature, the room conditions can definitely play a role.

8.)    Caffeine- biggest reason for me in early days. I don’t have much tolerance to caffeine, so even a coke drunk at 7PM might keep me up at 12PM. Suggested remedy: don’t have caffeine! Most of that stuff is bad for you anyway, but if you insist on having coffee, do it in the morning.

9.)    You are an attorney working on cases that strain your conscience and you lie awake at night in a cold sweat of immense guilt and self-loathing. OK this is a joke, but there might be something about conscience and anxiety about what you’re doing. Suggested remedy: Don’t become an attorney, serial killer, or renegade terrorist cell.

Happy dreams!
 
Fantasize on,
 
Robert Yan

Thursday, June 12, 2014

I hate walks


Finally, an all-fantasy baseball post! I love doing this!
 
I love watching pitchers pitch because of the continuous flow of the game and every pitch is important (whereas I lose all interest about a hitter after his at-bat ends, sometimes after one pitch). The most frustrating thing and heart-burn inducing thing is the walk. THROW STRIKES! It also helps in fantasy not to start walking people, so I’ve put a premium on low walk rates and high K/BB rates.

David Price

Wade Miley.

Wei Yin Chin 11 walks in 76.2 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi- 15 walks in 82.2 innings.

Henderson Alvarez- 16 walks in 81 innings. Seems like a trend with Marlin pitchers- keep track of them.

Some pitchers have excellent control and limit walks very well, but they give up too many hits. The Brandon McCarthy effect. Hitters know he’s a strike-thrower and jump on his straight fastballs even though they’re 95 MPH.

On the flip side, I HATE hitters who walk. It is frustrating for a guy who just watches pitches go by without even making an effort at hitting the ball. That’s why I’ll probably never watch high walkers like Joey Votto and Carlos Santana. Adam Dunn.

I own Jason Hammel so I’m probably biased, but I think his fast start (2.6 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) is for real. High strikeout rate, high velocity, limiting the walks. Might be a different pitcher. Limiting walks gives pitchers a confidence boost, limits big innings, allows you to go deeper into games, etc. For the season reason (but without having watched any of his games, Phil Hughes might be for real (just 8 walks in 86 innings!). Or he might be this year’s Ricky Nolasco- great career season, now back into a lemon).

Anyway hear of Charlie Blackmon recently? After a sizzling start, it’s time to move on from him.

Alexei Ramirez (currently No. 21 on the ESPN player rater) will fade. Michael Brantley (No. 10) has less of a history to suggest he’ll just fade, but chances of this lasting all season are low.

Add “Carlos Gomez” to the short list of names that could end up No. 1 on the player rater at the end of the year, as long as he doesn’t get any more suspensions.

Daily league people have to take advantage of “daily league” players like Adam Lind, Lucas Duda, etc. These guys have extreme splits against right-handed pitching that make them better than borderline fantasy studs like Alex Gordon or Freddie Freeman on any given day. If you have the roster room, roster them. It’s like Jered Weaver at home or Charlie Morton at home. The history supports that they are just better pitchers at home, and almost ace-like. Use the force!

And if you JUST need homers and maybe RBI’s, start Adam Dunn @ home against right-handers, and start Chris Carter anywhere v. LHP. Both should have at least 30 homers this year, you just don’t know when it’s going to be.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Balance


Balance in Japanese is 均衡 = Kinkou. Balance has various meanings and is a very important component of people’s lives as well as……..fantasy baseball lineups.

I’ve evolved my thinking of fantasy baseball over the years to stress the importance of balance on a fantasy baseball team. I normally only play 5x5 leagues, (other fantasy leagues have MORE stat categories, more stress one has to deal with), but I’ve found that over the course of the season it’s generally good to have balance on your team, players who contribute in steals, some who contribute in power, saves, etc. It’s probably wise not to “punt” a certain category, especially in head to head categories because almost half of what one’s outcome is every week is determined by the opponent’s team, and the opponents can have all kinds of deficiencies. You want to be there to capitalize. The theory behind punting is to totally give up on one category (usually saves, or steals) and get a leg up on other categories. It’s an intriguing possibility on paper, but hard to implement in real life. Players get random steals. Punting saves allows other teams to go all-relievers (depending on the weekly innings cap) and go for ERA and WHIP. Especially in head-to-head leagues, where weekly results can swing on few wins, runs, steals, etc., one wants a balanced team that can take advantage of any category and not just keep pouring on stats in categories that are already out of contention.

In order to do this, it’s great to have a bunch of 5-category producers, and then some specialists doing important stuff on a roster. Ideally, one drafts .300-100-30-100 (BA, runs, HRs, RBI’s) as much as possible in the early going, then gets homer-specialty guys or steal-specialty guys later.

Important speciality guys and whether they’ll keep it up:

1.)    Dee Gordon has 38 steals right now, on pace for about 90. Probably won’t reach that, but an important pure-speed guy that can propel a slow-moving team into a contender every week. Don’t think he’s getting moved from the leadoff spot in LA.

2.)    Alfonso Soriano- keep an eye on Soriano. This is EXACTLY what he did last season. Start off OK for the season, now in a prolonged slump, ceding playing time to Ichiro Suzuki and sits against right-handers………but there could be 20 HRs in about a month and a half soon.

3.)    Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson are FOR REAL. They are legitimate, bona fide, 4-category guys (no steals). Highlights the importance of not devaluing young guys coming off breakout seasons- they might just be legit.

4.)    What to do with Ryan Braun- supposedly his thumb issues should have sidelined him by now. Very interesting case with enormous potential if he’s healthy all season.

5.)    Chris Carter, Adam Dunn- probably should stay away from these guys due to sub-.200 averages, but so so intriguing if you’re “streaming home runs.’

6.)    Michael Morse- absolutely legit homer option even in San Francisco.

7.)    Anthony Rizzo- looks like he’s broken out in Chicago.

8.)    There are certain guys that just accumulate runs because they’re at the top of prolific lineups- Denard Span. Ian Kinsler (has a 120-R season under belt). Matt Carpenter.

9.)    The 2 candidates for having the most hits this season are Jose Altuve and Melky Cabrera. They both get a TON of chances.

10.) I’ve always advocated getting NL West closers, and for good reason- 3 of top 6 saves leaders are form NL West. Frankie Rodriguez has fallen off and should continue to do so.

11.) Need some strikeouts? Wade Miley has more than Michael Wacha or Jeff Samardzija and boasts a 25K/1BB ratio in his last 3 starts. Buy.

I have terrible physical balance, meaning I get pushed over easily, don’t’ do well on a balance beam, and seriously need yoga.

But in terms of life balance, I think I might be the poster child. Get a little exercise, travel a little, watch a little TV, have a little fun but not too much fun. At times I feel like my body can tell me when I need what, or my brain just directs me to things I need or feel like I want to do. I sometimes DREAM of things I want to do! To extend the fantasy baseball analogy, I basically have a bunch of 5-category producers stabilizied – steady job, steady lifestyle (8 hours of sleep, don’t smoke, exercise regularly), good connection with family, and now I just need some one-category producers = date more frequently to find “the one,” go on vacation for 2 months in the summer, have an adventure of a lifetime, and get it all out of your system.

Balance can also mean the thing that measures your weight, which hasn’t been so kind recently. I think humans are built to gain weight, we are supposed to eat more than we can, and that excess energy goes towards weight-building. The only stopping us from that is exercise and discipline/diets, things that require a lot of work and dedication. I used to be overweight and now am in great physical shape, so I’m not that conscious of it, but even still I get a little apprehensive about getting on a scale once every week. My expectations of how much I’ve lost/gained over the week do NOT always match with what number is reported. Seriously, are there just secretly 2lb-gaining foods out there that we don’t know about? And can we get a “Warning: consumption of this food will result in a body weight gain of 2lbs. Consumer discretion is advised.”

Fantasize on (in a balanced manner),

 

Robert Yan