Thursday, September 2, 2021

Insights into Chipotle

One of the nice things about living at my new home is that there's a Chipotle Mexican Grill right at the bottom of our condo complex- easy access to one of the most ubiquitous fast-food joints in the United States. Even though the price has increased since last year (from $7.00 to $8.15 for the standard chicken burrito, people still line up out the door like it's the hottest New York City restaurant, and online orders come in one after another 

Some pro-tips I've picked up over the years about ordering at Chipotle: 

1) Yes the amount of food you get varies based on multiple factors, one of them being the "hand strength" of the service employee working there, which is out of your control. (Except for me I've been able to gauge who's working at my local employee and keep a scouting report of who works when. There's one employee who must be pulling double shifts or some sort of overtime work arrangement because he is ALWAYS there, either making the food or serving the food.) What you CAN control is what time you go to buy your burrito, and my recommendation is NOT during the busy hours of lunch, 12PM-1:30PM. That's when everyone gets there, and that's also when the restaurant has a hard time keeping up with demand, making enough food to keep everyone happy, so what do they do? They short the amount that they give out. So not only are you waiting in line amidst all the other people in the restaurant during Covid, you're also getting less food for the same cost. A raw deal for me. When I go in during non-peak hours, the employees are happy, they're not rushed to get food out, and psychologically I think they're more apt to give out more food. It really is a psychological study: the correlation between the mood of Chipotle servers v. the amount of food that Chipotle customers receive. It can be pretty substantial: I would gauge I sometimes get 30%-40% more food. 

2.) CMG stock: I've been pounding the drum on Chipotle since 10 years ago, when it was at like $250. Now it's $1900/share, even after a salmonella scare in 2015 that cut the stock by half. The management team recovered from that, though, and their reputation is probably as good as it's ever been. For me it's replaced McDonald's and Arby's as my fast food go-to place........unlike those others, Chipotle advertises that it uses natural foods, GMO-free, no added hormones, and environmentally-responsible ingredients." Not sure if that's true, but that label of environmentally-friendly does certainly effect customers nowadays and shape its behavior, as does its reliable taste and easy menu......they've made the same thing since they started, but customers keep coming back. That's a reliable ticket for printing cash in America, as it helps to lower costs while generating plenty of cash. It's also embraced the digital era of online orders: not my Chipotle, but many of them in the suburbs have the drive-thru pick-up window. And if the recent price hike is any indication, customers didn't even mind the extra dollar they have to pay for everything. (Which is actually pretty important, as it means if I go to Chipotle 100 times in a year, I'm paying $100 extra every year, more than those monthly add-ons that Apple charges for extra storage space, extra features, etc.) Chipotle might have become an inelastic good, where people won't just go to a Qdoba or a McDonalds if Chipotle is too pricey for them. I might swap some of my MCD stock for Chipotle stock. 


3.) Buy avocadoes in bulk at Costco, then when one is ripe, go to Chipotle, then create your own guacamole, don't get the exorbitant chips and guac or whatever that Chipotle gets. Queso is also a little exorbitant......not Chipotle's best idea. 

4.) Whenever MJ and I have moved to a new place (3 or 4 times now, so it's a fairly frequent occurrence) MJ checks to see how far the closest Trader Joe's and/or Whole Foods is.....just so she can map it out, not have it be too far out of range. To a lesser extent, we also look at the nearest art museums, walking paths, and Korean restaurants. For me, I'd suggest figuring out where the closet Chipotle is, and if I can stop by it on the way home from work or from my evening run, when I'm too tired to make any of my own food and just want to have a quick getaway in the land of Chipotle bliss. Most Chipotle's are also open late, until 10PM, so that can be a key factor to quenching late-night hunger pangs. 

5.) In Durham, NC is an arepa restaurant- venezula food that's similar to a burrito, called "Guasaca." I see Guasaca or other similar restaurants as upcoming threats for Chipotle. But as a consumer, I would give Guasaca a try. 


Fantasize on, 


Robert Yan 




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