Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Transformation (変身)

When I was a kid, I wanted to be able to transform into different animals, superheros, etc. (similar to nowadays where I want to go back in time, but as myself). I probably was inspired by "Beast Wars" or Pokemon or some other TV out there, but it's natural, the desire to experience into something that one is not. Nowadays, though, I realize I DO change a lot, just more subtly: not only my physical body is changing, but my mentality changes every day, little by little, and it sometimes only manifests itself after 2 years or so when I realize the transformation become very apparent. For example, my attitude towards money, from carelessly spending and not bothering to budget to evaluating what items I really value in my life, or my attitude towards developing friendships (from assuming I would always just make new friends and not needing to maintain them to missing people and feeling lonely and needing to reach out to them at least once in a year, treasuring the ability to meet again and reminisce on the good times). These are the transformations I can personally make for myself without having to try to become a fox or an eagle or a transformer or something impossible like that. Actually, I think very few people rationally would want to transform into animals, basically moving backwards in the evolutionary process with less brain capacity and sophistication, moving backwards in the food chain, and how do body parts grow themselves like a tail? Sounds painful.

Speaking of animals transforming though, the stock market has transformed, and not in a good way, from a bull market to a bear market, seemingly almost overnight. One would think that there would be some prior warning, some passing of the torch, a magic word that causes the change, an announcement issued, a grace period like for a new law to be implemented effective a certain date, nope, basically at the end of September 2018 into the first week of October 2018 will be remembered as when the 10-year historic bull market turned into a bear market. It used to be investors were hopelessly optimistic, stocks just went up in a gradual upslope, even when there was a slight pullback it would just be a great opportunity to "buy the dip" (oh how I loathe that term now), everyone was happy, everybody's portfolios got fat, all news was perceived through rose-colored glasses, and there was no end in sight. Unfortunately, that complacency is what caused the sudden advent of the bear market, as stocks so sorely needed to be sold off that when they did start selling off, the sell-off was fierce and sudden. Suddenly no dip was safe to buy, if you bought back into the market it just immediately went down lower, every stock was in the red, there was no respite. (I, again, would have liked a week or 2 of stagnant flat-line stock activity before the bear market hit) but nope. And the problem is, because the change happened so quickly, everyone psychologically was still in bull-market mode, so they lost a lot of money holding on to stocks thinking they would go back up. When I look back at the beginning of October and wonder why I didn't sell at the beginning of the bear market (hindsight always being 20/20), it's because I thought the market, like the last 10 years, would just go back up! It was like a bear that still wore bull's clothing except it had changed already, and we all missed it. Problem with stocks: by the time you know for sure it's a bear market, it's already gone down so much that the lesson can't be used this time. It was a embarrassing lesson to take, but a necessary lesson to have .Hopefully later on in life I will have more money to invest and learn from this time's mistakes? I keep telling myself that at least.

My wife MJ, though, is making a stunning transformation from economics to nursing! I always admire people who can make a change in their life pattern, so I hope her the best!

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

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