Thursday, November 7, 2013

The Death of the Elite Fantasy Football RB



I grew up in the age of the running back. In 1998 or 1999, even before I had heard of what fantasy football was, I inadvertently turned on the radio in my parents’ old Dodge Grand Caravan (that was a great car for road trips) and heard a fantasy football program listing some of the best fantasy players of the time…….and they were all running backs. LaDanian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, Curtis Martin, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes. These guys were downright beasts and mentioned at the top of every fantasy football magazine, radio show, TV program, conversation, etc. With good reason. These running backs were usually good for 1,500 yards and at least 16 TD’s, some averaged 20 TD’s a year.
The landscape of fantasy football has changed in 2013. Don’t get wrong; the top picks in fantasy football are still running backs, but that’s because of position scarcity, not because these running backs are still at the top of their game. The league has become a pass-heavy league with the rules favoring wide receivers and passing, so running has become a relic. Gone are the days when LT had 4-TD games followed by Priest Holmes putting up his own 4TD game, where “feature backs” were expected to get at least 25 carries a game. Now the running back pool is inundated with timeshares, split backfields, and general lack of devotion to the run game. The run game is boring; Mobile QB’s take up carries that RB’s would have gotten before; it’s better to feature the pass, etc., etc. etc.
Case in point: Of the top 12 fantasy scorers in all of fantasy (Yahoo! Standard scoring this year), ONE is a RB: Jamaal Charles, the only exception to the new trend, the guy who runs all the time for his team, a true bastion of hope for those who cling on to the feature-RB philosophy. Then you have Matt Forte ( just ahead of the likes of QB’s Alex Smith), then a TIGHT END Jimmy Graham, another couple QB’s, LeSean McCoy (the modern-day Brian Westbrook), then WIDE RECEIVERS Calvin Johnson and AJ Green, then DeSean Jackson, and finally the a string of RB’s after that.
Adrian Peterson, acknowledged as the best runner IN THE WORLD, has the same amount of fantasy points as WR Dez Bryant. Things just aren’t what they were any more, and people can pick up time-share RB’s and emerging studs like Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Giovanni Bernard, and Danny Woodhead. The first round of drafts (traditionally acknowledged as the time of the “stud RB” yielded Arian Foster (hurt), Ray Rice (underperforming), CJ Spiller (lost starting job) and  Alfred Morris (getting TD’s vulture left and right). So these RB’s are producing like they should be AND they get injured more because NFL players are bigger and faster. So why are we picking these guys so high again? Perhaps fantasy players should really re-examine what they want to do next year and instead pick up the Top TE by far (Jimmy Graham) or a top QB (pick of Manning, Brees, or Rodgers) or rock-solid Megatron or AJ Green with that top pick. Cuz that RB? It just ain’t rock solid anymore.
Life, like the NFL, progresses quickly. Trends emerge over time. Things I value are much more different than things I valued before, just in the span of the time of this blog (coming up on 7 years in February). When I started this blog, I was on an obsession of being on The Mole, a reality TV show, that had most recently aired in 2002. I was convinced I would either get on Survivor, Big Brother, the Amazing Race, or any of the major reality TV shows I was interested in at the time. I even participated in online “Survivor simulations” where I competed against other people. Yea, it was a weird time. Reality TV was a big priority for me. It is no longer, although I still wouldn’t mind going on one of those shows (and still convinced I would do well). Amazing Race- it’s not too late call me.
Learning from that, I know that my interests and priorities will change a few years from now, and I’ll look back at some of the things I care about as trivial and mundane. I have a strong affinity of getting invited to weddings, for example. I have a feeling that will fade after the wedding rush that my friends will have soon as well as (hopefully) planning my own. Fantasy sports will probably never go away, but it will fade in intensity as I understand (even now) that it is more of a game (video game) that’s a luxury, not a way of life (and no matter how good I am at it, I can’t overcome the lack of time I will have to manage it as well as the elements of luck involved).
I’ll also look admiringly at some of the things I am able to do nowadays (like a fantasy player now hunting for a RB admiring the amazing stats that were compiled at that position in the glory years). I sometimes look back at high school, especially junior year, and wonder how I survived. AP classes, tennis, chess, SATs, orchestra rehearsal, and I had a part-time job that year on top of it. Probably the most productive year of my life, bar none, although this one ranks up there.
So I guess the lesson here is enjoy it while it lasts and take a good mental image of how it feels to feel right now, because like Ricky Watters, Barry Sanders, and Edgerrin James, it might not ever come back. For me, the next 3 years or so are probably my last being single, so it’ll be the end of eating whatever I want, dictating my own schedule, planning for myself and myself only. I’ll make sure to go on as many road trips, international trips, and random excursions as much as possible. Because one day, I’ll wake up and find myself with Arian Foster and Ray Rice hurt and the likes of Joseph Randle and Chris Ogbonnaya on the waiver wire (like I did today)

Fantasize on,


Robert Yan 

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