Ambiguous Signals

The Japanese are great at ambiguity and subtlty. For example, the phrase “Kekko desu” can mean “yes” or “no” depending on the context, and there is no rule to differentiate them! Also, “Daijobu desu” can mean “That’s fine” or “Never mind, forget it, that’s fine.” Completely opposite meanings. Studying the language is hard enough as it is;

Ambiguities in dating/trying to get a date are difficult as well. One has to be aware of the little “hints,” “body language,” and “eye contact.” It’s not an exact science, and women don’t just go up to someone and say “I want to date you.” (Well, I guess if one is a rock star, Brad Pitt, or professional athlete, women throw themselves on) but it’s definitely tough to guess, and sometimes one makes a mistake in interpretation. Girls are weird. Some are subtle. Some are just bubbly by nature and seem flirtatious when not really being flirtatious. Some girls are crazy. Some girls might be the nicest girls on the face of the earth but one would not be able to tell. So tough.  Two cues that seem like a pretty definite sign : Recently, I went on a date and bought a “gag gift” for a girl, nothing major that was sort of an inside joke (The Japanese do this all the time when meeting someone and say, “Tsumaranai koto desu.” Meaning “It’s nothing major.” I got a text later that night that said, “Thanks for the friendship (item).” Pretty much says it all without saying too much. I get it. Sigh. Pretty much as unambiguous

(not sure why I’m publicizing all of these dating horror stories, btw, I guess I’m hoping someone will commiserate with me one day on these difficulties and justifyall the obstacles I’ve encountered, but so far everyone I’m met says stuff like “O Match.com is great! I’ve heard lots of people use it!”

Anyway, the biggest ambiguous signal in fantasy football is knowing if one big performance from a player is indicative of a trend. The span of results for a guy coming off something like a 100-yard, 2TD game (for a RB) or a 9-catch, 131 yard performance for a WR after being completely unheard of prior to that game is as wide as anything in fantasy sports. (I call it the Samkon Gado Concept- named for a GB running back several years ago who came from being a neurosurgeon to starting in the NFL). It’s a very ambiguous situation- fantasy owners don’t know whether to believe in that performance as an indicator of things to come or just a total blip on the radar. Type A is a guy like Victor Cruz, who came on the scene in Week 3 of the 2011 season with a 100-yard, 2TD game for the Giants where the Giants already had great WR’s Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, but Cruz outplayed all of them and almost everyone else in WR-land that year, carrying me and many other fantasy footballers to victory. Cruz’s don’t happen that much, and for every Cruz there’s a Zach Sudfeld (heralded as the next Rob Gronkowski for Tom Brady, never did anything, and was cut) or a David Terrell, or a Frisman Jackson, etc., etc. etc. Yea you’ve never heard of those guys, but at some point they put up a fantasy fantasy performance for at least one game.

I think the code to deciphering those ambiguous performances is the type of game….if it’s 3 REC, 150 Yards, it’s a fluke. One play probably dictated that entire line. So I like to see little cuts, like the QB kept targeting that receiver, or the RB kept getting carries that made one assume he will get more. Very obvious information, but still. Also, talent wins out in the end, so a guy like Jerrico Cotchery (completely immobile receiver who only catches) will also be Jerrico Cotchery, whereas a guy like Victor Cruz (was the fastest guy on the team) or Kembrell Thompkins (1^st round draft pick) has a lot of upside and might win enough opportunities to get in a position for another explosion.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan 

Life is a Game of Inches

Life is a game of inches. Every sport has a similar phrase, and it’s pretty true in all sports: basketballs miss right off the iron, baseballs travel just over the reach of an outstretched glove, receivers’ feet step just over the end line in the end zone; Half an inch left for young Gordon Bombay and Mighty Ducks would have never happened. These are the “six inches in front of your face” that Al Pacino was talking about in “Any Given Sunday.” The difference between things happening and not happening are razor thin, have to make sure in every situation you make the best effort to be on the right side of those inches.

Life’s the same way.

1.)    My car (new 2013 Honda Accord) got grazed the other day, it is now unsightly and I had to go do a paint touch-up to it.

2.)    Lawsuits are decided because someone marked a “t” instead of a “y” and a contract does not read as it should.

3.)    Tumors spread just short of the heart and allow someone to live.

These are just some of the examples; maybe I’m just in a contemplative mood but it’s fascinating how many things turn out differently if one just does something a little differently; it reminds me (and should everyone) how diligently we need to work. I am one of those people who live like that, that life is a game of inches and I don’t want to let any bit of that inch get away. I try to get through traffic as soon as possible because (horror of all horrors) I might miss something or someone if I’m late, I need to finish these couples words of studying because they might be needed somewhere down the line in a crucial situation; I need to finish this on time or else my whole day will be ruined. It’s a bit silly, a bit perfectionist, but it’s how I go about, especially in the limited amount of time we have every day. We’re given about 16 waking hours or about 960 minutes every day to go about our business, I don’t like to waste any of those minutes. I think that’s been especially accentuated during my time as a lawyer, where billing occurs in hourly or 15-minute or 6-minute increments, depending on how one’s billables are determined, and I plan my schedule far in advance and always ask myself “am I using these hours productively?” and if the answer is “No,” I think of what I can do to start getting them productive.

It’s probably not a particularly healthy or low-stress lifestyle, but it’s the one I have chosen (and was probably destined) to lead. Life is a game of inches. I’m try to get every inch that I can get.

Fantasy sports can be a game of inches too. Here’s how to use miniscule details to extract the most minor of advantages against your opponents.  (This is for advanced fantasy addicts)

1.)    Find out which players your opponents are heavily targeting on draft day and bid them up on draft day, especially in an auction draft.

2.)    Find out what the weather conditions are before a football matchup. Heavily influences how the game plays in turns of running the ball, turnovers, kicking conditions, etc. Rain/mud = turnovers, windy = run the ball more, bad kicking conditions, etc.

2a.) Find out the weather conditions before an MLB game and see if there are chances of a rainout. Especially important in fantasy playoff time when every game counts.

3.)    IN daily transaction leagues, snatch up guys you don’t need every day so that your opponents are deprived of them, then set them free to the waiver wire so that your opponent cannot use those players prior to the players clearing waivers, thus “hijacking the waiver wire.” Use with caution; maybe seen as unethical by some managers.

4.)    Lot of information in the preseason that managers don’t utilize, instead relying on pre-draft magazines published months before the actual draft. NBA preseason is especially predictive, but every sport’s preseason has a huge impact on roles/deciding starters. Check daily news every day during this time.

5.)    Put early game guys in the most specific position slots (RB, WR, etc.) and then late-game guys in the flex spots (UTIL, FLEX, RB/WR etc.) so that if the late-game guys suddenly bail you have a wide arrangement of players you can replace them with.

6.)    Never have a kicker on your roster during the week in NFL, instead using it on a backup WR/RB in case one of the starters gets hurt, then pick a kicker up on Sunday morning as there will always be a kicker available.

7.)    In basketball head-to-head leagues, always figure out if your opponent is punting certain categories so that you can be just a little ahead of them in that category instead of wasting the stats on an abundance of counters that you don’t need. (Check minutes before lineups lock as some opposing managers can be looking at you too and making last-minute adjustments).

8.)    In making trades, try to get a small concession from your opponent by making one of the conditions that you receive the player in favorable timing, like if you’re giving up a starting pitcher, make the trade complete AFTER the SP’s final start with your team,  or if you are getting a star hitter, make the trade effective when he’s heading into a STRONG hitting situation. Opponents rarely say no in these situations. 

The Death of the Elite Fantasy Football RB

I grew up in the age of the running back. In 1998 or 1999, even before I had heard of what fantasy football was, I inadvertently turned on the radio in my parents’ old Dodge Grand Caravan (that was a great car for road trips) and heard a fantasy football program listing some of the best fantasy players of the time…….and they were all running backs. LaDanian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, Curtis Martin, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes. These guys were downright beasts and mentioned at the top of every fantasy football magazine, radio show, TV program, conversation, etc. With good reason. These running backs were usually good for 1,500 yards and at least 16 TD’s, some averaged 20 TD’s a year.

The landscape of fantasy football has changed in 2013. Don’t get wrong; the top picks in fantasy football are still running backs, but that’s because of position scarcity, not because these running backs are still at the top of their game. The league has become a pass-heavy league with the rules favoring wide receivers and passing, so running has become a relic. Gone are the days when LT had 4-TD games followed by Priest Holmes putting up his own 4TD game, where “feature backs” were expected to get at least 25 carries a game. Now the running back pool is inundated with timeshares, split backfields, and general lack of devotion to the run game. The run game is boring; Mobile QB’s take up carries that RB’s would have gotten before; it’s better to feature the pass, etc., etc. etc.

Case in point: Of the top 12 fantasy scorers in all of fantasy (Yahoo! Standard scoring this year), ONE is a RB: Jamaal Charles, the only exception to the new trend, the guy who runs all the time for his team, a true bastion of hope for those who cling on to the feature-RB philosophy. Then you have Matt Forte ( just ahead of the likes of QB’s Alex Smith), then a TIGHT END Jimmy Graham, another couple QB’s, LeSean McCoy (the modern-day Brian Westbrook), then WIDE RECEIVERS Calvin Johnson and AJ Green, then DeSean Jackson, and finally the a string of RB’s after that.

Adrian Peterson, acknowledged as the best runner IN THE WORLD, has the same amount of fantasy points as WR Dez Bryant. Things just aren’t what they were any more, and people can pick up time-share RB’s and emerging studs like Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Giovanni Bernard, and Danny Woodhead. The first round of drafts (traditionally acknowledged as the time of the “stud RB” yielded Arian Foster (hurt), Ray Rice (underperforming), CJ Spiller (lost starting job) and  Alfred Morris (getting TD’s vulture left and right). So these RB’s are producing like they should be AND they get injured more because NFL players are bigger and faster. So why are we picking these guys so high again? Perhaps fantasy players should really re-examine what they want to do next year and instead pick up the Top TE by far (Jimmy Graham) or a top QB (pick of Manning, Brees, or Rodgers) or rock-solid Megatron or AJ Green with that top pick. Cuz that RB? It just ain’t rock solid anymore.

Life, like the NFL, progresses quickly. Trends emerge over time. Things I value are much more different than things I valued before, just in the span of the time of this blog (coming up on 7 years in February). When I started this blog, I was on an obsession of being on The Mole, a reality TV show, that had most recently aired in 2002. I was convinced I would either get on Survivor, Big Brother, the Amazing Race, or any of the major reality TV shows I was interested in at the time. I even participated in online “Survivor simulations” where I competed against other people. Yea, it was a weird time. Reality TV was a big priority for me. It is no longer, although I still wouldn’t mind going on one of those shows (and still convinced I would do well). Amazing Race- it’s not too late call me.

Learning from that, I know that my interests and priorities will change a few years from now, and I’ll look back at some of the things I care about as trivial and mundane. I have a strong affinity of getting invited to weddings, for example. I have a feeling that will fade after the wedding rush that my friends will have soon as well as (hopefully) planning my own. Fantasy sports will probably never go away, but it will fade in intensity as I understand (even now) that it is more of a game (video game) that’s a luxury, not a way of life (and no matter how good I am at it, I can’t overcome the lack of time I will have to manage it as well as the elements of luck involved).

I’ll also look admiringly at some of the things I am able to do nowadays (like a fantasy player now hunting for a RB admiring the amazing stats that were compiled at that position in the glory years). I sometimes look back at high school, especially junior year, and wonder how I survived. AP classes, tennis, chess, SATs, orchestra rehearsal, and I had a part-time job that year on top of it. Probably the most productive year of my life, bar none, although this one ranks up there.

So I guess the lesson here is enjoy it while it lasts and take a good mental image of how it feels to feel right now, because like Ricky Watters, Barry Sanders, and Edgerrin James, it might not ever come back. For me, the next 3 years or so are probably my last being single, so it’ll be the end of eating whatever I want, dictating my own schedule, planning for myself and myself only. I’ll make sure to go on as many road trips, international trips, and random excursions as much as possible. Because one day, I’ll wake up and find myself with Arian Foster and Ray Rice hurt and the likes of Joseph Randle and Chris Ogbonnaya on the waiver wire (like I did today)

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan 

Dating Life Horror Stories for Halloween

Recently I was at a Starbucks and witnessed one of the most awkward moments in my life: a man coming from the street asking the woman next to me if she was single (after confessing that “she was the most beautiful woman he had ever seen,”) and the woman promptly breaking the news that she was married. Devastating. I felt bad, almost as awkward as watching an Office episode sometimes, getting that cringing feeling and not wanting to see the car crash. But is that the worst kind of rejection I’ve ever had? The different ways I’ve been rejected:

1.)    Going to Vegas with a girl, rooming IN THE SAME HOTEL ROOM and then when out gambling, random guy cuts in and asks girl “if we were together.” She says “No.” Ouch.

2.)    Sending out “hopefully intriguing” emails on match.com and just getting no reply. That’s not that uncommon and actually preferred over some of these others.

3.)    Asking if a girl was available over the phone after texting back and forth and basically just being told no.

4.)    Asking a different girl who had gone to tennis with and chatted for months if she wanted to go out, told “she was too busy.”

5.)    Asked a girl at work (temporary position, was leaving the position soon) by card (attached a flower to the note writing a large section asking to get coffee sometime, and was sent an email later that night indicating “maybe at a later time.” Yea ,this was a confusing time…..why did I send a card, you ask? It’s complicated and has to do with “not getting the timing down when the co-worker was leaving work to ask personally as well as mental lapses caused by being “restructured” (Japanese euphemism for being let go).

Yea so a lot of NOs. Fortunately I’ve gotten a few “yes’s” in my life so I haven’t gone totally crazy, but what I’ve learned is that usually when a girl wants you to ask them out, they’ll give some hints, and you gotta pounce on those (I didn’t pounce on several “could be’s” that could have turned out to be “yes’,” and when a girl doesn’t want you to ask them out, you’ll probably know. Again, life is difficult when you’re not a movie star/very  handsome/good-looking. Again, I liken dating to buying houses or any other type of goods in supply: the best-looking houses will get snatched up quickly because most people objectively like that house, the lesser ones eventually might get picked but it’ll take some time and some massive selling for someone to go in and take a deeper look……..which might lead to GOLD! (Yes, I’m comparing myself to gold). Gosh, I really hope I can look back at these last couple posts and be able to laugh and not have it be just the beginning of a downward spiral of bad experiences.

Anyway, lots going on in fantasy right now……October, as I’m sure has been mentioned by me on this blog as well as lots of sports experts everywhere, is (along with March and April) the best sports month in the year, and it just passed. Baseball ended (congrats to the Boston Red Sox, possibly gate-to-gate the best team in baseball all year, unlike previous champions San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals), football’s in full swing, and basketball just kicked off.

Here’s Bobby’s Novel Betting Theory: Just look up what the majority of people are betting on, and just take the opposite. I just tried it on ESPN Pick’em league today, went a very snappy 8 for 12, should have went  8 for 11 if not for the Texans blowing a 24-6 lead at halftime after their coach collapsed on the field and losing 27-24 to lose a +2.5 spread. (Yea, I was not happy).

Bobby’s new “becoming an adult” theory:  In almost all fantasy leagues nowadays I’m starting to embrace a “this guy finally is becoming an adult” theory, where I try to get guys who are entering their 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th years depending on the sport. I think this has a lot to do with me personally gaining experience in the world (my 2^nd full year in the “real world” and understanding that maturity and experience sometimes trump skill and resisting the ever-so-tempting hype of a pure-talent rookie. This doesn’t always apply and sometimes applies differently for different positions, like QB (the older the better, really) v. RB’s (the younger the better) but definitely applies in baseball and basketball. I like Nicholas Batum (5^th year) more than Kyrie Irving (2^nd year), etc.

And as Alfonso Soriano, David Ortiz and Carlos Beltran proved this year (they were key cogs on my fantasy team too, btw), age can sometimes be a boon, not a deterrent.

Gravity is a great movie. The way a 3D movie truly should be. Do not watch Captain Phillips if you get seasick. I got seasick AT THE MOVIE.

The more I think about Halloween, the more I think of how great a holiday it is. Other countries don’t have it; definitely something the people should rally behind. It’s not just for little kids; sure there’s the built-in component of candy on Halloween and scary movies and what not, but one of the essential themes behind Halloween is dressing up as someone else: being able to dress like someone that’s not you for a day, take up a different identity, whether that be a superhero, a villain, a monster, a profession, a celebrity, a cartoon character, whatever, you take on the characteristics of that person and can act like that person without fear of being accused of hypocrisy or shameless pandering. We’re ourselves 364 days (sometimes even 365) days of the year, it’s good sometimes to take up another personality, see life through another’s shoes, mix it up a little bit. I’m sure most people, if not all, have wondered what it is like to be someone else for a day; I know I think about it about every day. To be able to just change personalities, change your entire way of life, now that’d be powerful. Halloween allows you to do that (with the caveat of not being able to do so permanently as well as the knowledge that you aren’t really that thing) for a day. I think that’s really powerful and should be embraced, not only in this country as a holiday that’s more significant that the no-official-recognition-you-still-have-to-go-to-school/work status it has now and in other countries as a holiday worth having.

My favorite expression (ichiban-suki na kotoba) in Japanese currently is: giri-giri maniatta!, meaning “barely making it on time,” which happens all the time in L.A. due to traffic, if not being late altogether. Also it just sounds cool. That and “Daijobu desu.” (meaning it’s OK!)

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan