I’ve been wrestling all week about the Boston bombings (to
recap, this week has been very tumultuous as not only was there a Texas
fertilizer plant that blew up killing 14 people, the running of the Boston
Marathon was interrupted on Monday, Patriots’ Day, by bombings along the route
that were perpetrate by unknown terrorists until Thursday night, when a massive
all-day manhunt throughout Boston started and concluded with one of the
suspects shot dead and another taken into custody). If I was look at the death
count, it’s not such a tremendous impact: several dead, lots injured, many lost
limbs, arms, etc. A younger, more callous version of myself would have just
stopped there with that counter-sentiment: “It wasn’t really that big a deal,
the American public is overreacting, the media has blown it way out of
proportion (not intended to be a pun) due to the urban setting and
sensationalist manhunt that occurred.” There’s something to be said for that:
terrorist attacks happen all the time in other countries, bombings in public
areas and mass hysteria, certainly exerting a death and injury toll higher than
that witnessed in Boston. In fact, in China this week many hundreds died due to
an earthquake. Are those lives that are lost in the earthquake less important
than the ones lost in the Boston bombings? I would think not. All deaths and
injuries are not to be taken lightly. And as an American I wouldn’t want to
confirm the stereotypical view that Americans feel invincible, like they are
superior to others and can’t be hurt, or that their lives are more precious than
citizens of other countries. So that would be one side to the argument, that I
and most of America is are overreacting to this event.
The
argument for why I might be UNDERreacting to this news, though, is that this is
not a normal bombing. This is a trend to something bigger, that random people
throughout America, for whatever reason, whether they’re disgruntled at someone
specific or angry at the world or whatever, can cause mass killings and create
great chaos and put many, many people in harm’s way. Perhaps this is just a
piece of a bigger picture, of a society that’s increasingly harboring citizens
that become so delusional and ill-witted but with such tremendous means to
create great destruction that it’s becoming too big of a problem. I don’t know
if other decades, time periods, and eras had this much random violence, but
certainly the last few years or so has seen a flurry of these kinds of random
mass terrorist-like acts, whether in Aurora, Colorado, Gabby Giffords in
Arizona, last December’s Newtown, Connecticut shootings, and now this. It’s
really a disturbing sign that although very random, and having a minimal chance
of happening to you yourself, that we’ve lost control of the ability to keep
these maniacs, lunatics, or illdoers away from themselves or their distorted
ideals, that we have to accept these ground rules (that you might be subject to
mass violence in a very public place) at any time. It is very tragic and very
disturbing, and I fear that I might be UNDERREACTING to this news. I’m really worried
that these random attacks will surpass earthquakes and others in the sphere of
consciousness as the most feared killers. Also, think about this specific
Boston bombing: Done at the end of a sporting event for charity, where most of
the participants are running for some cause, have been drawn by the publicity
of the event to contribute to society and do good, basically the best members
of society being singled out by these bombers and targeted to their detriment.
It’s really a shame and sends a very bad message to the public as a whole. Let’s
stop this.
Since this is a fantasy blog though and there have been 3
weeks of baseball in the books, let’s do a theme of overreaction/underreaction
to some of the slow starts and hot streaks at the beginning of the season and
evaluate early season trends.
1.)
Some marginal pitchers that people might be
underreacting to are Paul Maholm (man just look at that strikeout rate),
Hisashi Iwakuma (great environment), Carlos Villanueva (no pressure in the
right league). Many are touting them as “regressing to the mean” candidates,
but sometimes pitchers just breakout, and we may be seeing the beginning of
great years.
2.)
LOT of overreaction on Mike Trout. Remember at
this time last year he hadn’t even taken a major league at-bat yet. Still 35
HR, 40 SB at least, I’d say.
3.)
Generally, don’t overreact to any proven hitters
who have put up similar numbers for 4 or more years. These are guys who,
whatever they’re going through, have “gone through it” before, and have figured
it out. Don’t worry about Matt Kemp’s “recovery
from injury,” Joey Votto’s lack of power, Ryan Braun’s slow start (geez, if you’re
worried about Ryan Braun other than possible suspension you don’t know fantasy
baseball)
4.)
Do worry about those hitters if they’re getting
too old. A buddy of mine recently told me Albert Pujols has regressed to the
point he has to “cheat on a fastball,” which indicates loss of bat speed, rapid
regression, etc. Bad news for Angels, bad news for fantasy owners.
5.)
John Buck- we might all be underreacting here.
Every once in a while a 30+ guy has a year that he’s never done before and no
one ever saw coming (see Esteban Loaiza, Edwin Encarnacion). For some owners,
he might be so obvious of a pickup (more than 10 RBI’s more than the closest
competitor on waiver wire) that people don’t want to pick him up. If he’s on
some waiver wires, Grab him.
6.)
Coco Crisp: Ok, now here’s a guy who will never
hit for much power, his 5 HR’s will probably be half of his season total. Don’t
overreact.
7.)
Dexter Fowler: Seems like a legitimate breakout
to me. Good park, good lineup protection, good pedigree. Overreact. Go wild.
8.)
Jed Lowrie/Michael Morse All Oakland and Seattle
hitters. Those parks will gobble their stats alive.
9.)
Not that many closer changes in the MLB yet
(unlike last year, when a lot). Don’t overreact and pay a high price in a trade
for a closer. New closers are coming, trust me. Managers are impatient to win
and will have itchy trigger fingers.
10.) Don’t
underreact to the “passing of the torch” at the top of the hitter rankings,
names like Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, and Adam Jones. These
are the new hitting hierarchy, and we just need to get used to them.
FFantasize on,
Robert Yan
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