Thursday, November 12, 2009

Buy Low Now


Perfect opportunity in both Fantasy Basketball and stocks to buy low for similar reasons: early in the season for hoops, early in the rally for equity. Seriously about stocks, I'm hyping it up. Cramer (and you may have differing opinions about this guy, but here's what he said) has an interesting theory that it's a cyclical bull market now, where one industry goes up for a while, stops, while industrials go up, then financials, then tech, and another, and suddenly all stocks are moving forward. Have no idea whether or not that's true or not (sounds plausible), but here's my basic psychological analysis for the market:

Investors who pulled all their money out early in the year want to find good stocks to put money back in. They pour some money in, other investors see a slight gain, their mindset is the gains must be coming, they dump some money in, build some momentum, more cautious investors do the same thing w/ all the excess money, and suddenly we have a rally. Just like the massive withdrawals that caused the recession, except the opposite. Buy, buy, buy!

Deron Williams: Numbers slightly down from previous years, especially %'s. They'll normalize; he's only 25 years young.

Al Jefferson: Ever go long-distance running after not doing so for 6 months? Takes a while to build up the stamina, doesn't it? Same thing w/ Al-Jeff's knees. Patience.

Antawn Jamison/ Rashard Lewis: lower value simply from inactivity; their owners might fallen into the fantasy fallacy and discounted them despite lack of opportunity. Sounds silly, but it happens: even good owners (so yea, I've done this before) hold a guy while hurt and just lose patience, release just when they're about to come back.

Gilbert Arenas: Value may be at an all-time low w/ the unfathomable 12 TO-performance in the last game.
Caron Bulter: pair of wizards who will benefit w/ Jamison's return.

RIMM (Research in Motion) stock: one of few stocks in its industry who hasn't recovered much from March lows. A volatile behemoth in 2006-2007, he's like the Dow Jones's Josh Smith: risky, but has upside ready to explode.

Andre Miller: Soon to be the point man of a 50-plus win team. Time to low-ball somebody.

Anthony Randolph: hesistated to put him on there cuz he killed Nellie's goldfish or something equivalent to permanently anger him, but just look at what he does when on the floor. Goes under the "talent always wins out" category.

To end, how exciting has Russell made Survivor the last few weeks? Sure, he overplayed by revealing to everyone and their mother that he had the idol, but w/o scrambling his tribe woulda been picked out anyway. Now he's in good shape w/ a 5-5 divide and goes head-to-head w/ Laura (how crucial were her immunity wins, btw) next week in what from the previews may become a rat-race sort of chaos for the immunity idol. Good job, survivor, you got me hooked again.

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

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