The title of this post relates to what my roommate, nico, pens "rookie mistakes," defined as bad decision made usually on the part of freshman/rookies/first-timers who fall into the mistake because of their lack of experience or sheer stupidity. To specify, rookies are the ones who usually make rookie mistakes, but veterans can make them too. Any mistake anybody makes that are things that only rookies should do is qualified as a "rookie mistake." It's a catchy term, and i've been using it in the early parts of 2008. I have these "phase phrases" for weeks or months at a time where i refer to many things with the same term, such as "you rat" or "matriculated", but rookie mistake might stick for a bit.
So let's apply rookie mistakes to fantasy. The first part of rookie mistakes are NBA teams' drafting of rookies and how they've performed so far this year. Many times rookies are new to the NBA and have to work into the game, learn from the vets, things like that and it takes them a few years to get acclimated, then find their niche and really have a breakout season, like Dwayne Wade who was no superstar by any stretch of the imagination his first year but eventually lead the heat to a championship in 2006. Some, however, come out w/ guns blazing: LeBron James comes to mind, as well as the "new" point guards chris paul and deron williams.
This year, rookies aren't doing so hot: Greg Oden got saddled by an injury that cost him the whole year, Kevin Durant is alright but on a start-up sonics team, Mike Conley Jr. hasn't gotten PT yet, jeff green's in that same situation in seattle. The guys who are somewhat fantasy contributors are al horford, who's actually done a little bit better than expected as the #3 draft pick, becoming an impressive big man alongside josh smith et al in atlanta.
Anyway, what's more important about the term "rookie mistakes" is how it relates to fantasy owners. God knows, i made a lot of rookie mistakes during my first year of fantasy basketball, as well as fantasy baseball, fantasy football, etc. Things like not understanding percentages, overvaluing stars, selling low and buying high, not accounting for injuries, and not doing a live draft.
I guess this blog is really good for rootin out rookie mistakes, and i think i'm gonna continue this line of thinking by giving bits of advice as the season progresses as i see them, whether it's committed by me or someone else in one of my leagues. That way you get a much better learnin curve.
Here are some rookie mistakes I see all the time:
1.) leaving guys in who are injured. This hurts cuz you get no production from that guy, all goose eggs for the day, in some leagues it takes away a game anyway, and you could have put in some other player that just had a crazy night. This is easily cured by checking websites the day the game is played in the afternoon or something. I recommend rotoworld.com, which keeps updates on relevant fantasy information at all hours of the day.
2.) Drafting star power. OMG, i am so annoyed when this happens, but also very satisfied when the guy who gets ignored falls to me. Just because a guy is a perennial all-star doesn't mean his stats are fantasy all-star worthy. Sure, there's a correlation between star power in the NBA and good stats, but stars often have the problems of turning it over a lot, shooting too much and lowerin your FG%, not playing enough defense, etc. For example, Kevin Martin vs. Tracy McGrady, who gets more attention? Obviously, T-Mac sells more jerseys, but ask any fantasy expert and at this point they'd rather have kevin martin. Same thing w/ Chris Paul vs. Vince Carter ( u want paul), Caron Butler vs. Allen Iverson ( you want the butler).
Alright those are two most prominent rookie mistakes. Unlike previous promises, i'm gonna get rid of my politician tendencies and actually follow through on this one and post more rookie mistakes. Stay tuned.
Fantasize on,
Robert Yan
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