Tuesday, March 22, 2016

The Mike Trout theory

Some people are just better at certain things/skills/activities than others. Doesn't mean they're better people overall necessarily, or that they deserve those special set of skills, but when viewed objectively, they are just better. Mike Trout is one of those people. He is one of the most gifted athletes in the world, but he happens to play baseball and be really good at it. He is the definition of an all-around athlete: he can throw, he can catch, he can run, he can hit a ball really really hard. For those reasons he is regarded generally as the best player in baseball.

In fantasy baseball, Mike Trout is also generally regarded as the best player. Unlike real baseball, however, it is easier to quantify how much Trout is better than the rest of the field. Whereas real baseball needs to take into consideration leadership qualities, morale, defensive runs saved over replacement value, and some other aspects, fantasy baseball is purely statistics and numbers based, and can be viewed analytically. Which is where the fun begins (and my fun with fantasy baseball takes root- the numbers, how good a player really is). Last season, Trout hit .299, scored 104 runs, hit 41 homers, had 99 RBI, and stole 11 bases. He contributed in all of the 5 categories he could have, but he was just the 12th best player based on ESPN player rater, and 8th best hitter. What happened? Mostly Trout didn't have as many stolen bases as some others, and hit for a lower average (.300 is a good batting average for major league hitters, but the best hitters can hit .320 and above). However, at the height of Mike Trout's game, the 2012 season (his first full season when he was just 20 years old!) he hit .326, scored 129 runs, hit 30 HRs, 83 RBI, and stole 49 bases (in just 139 games, not a full season!) . Amazing statistical numbers, and the 49 stolen bases definitely boosted him statistically to the best fantasy player on earth. That is why Mike Trout is rated No. 1 among most fantasy baseball analysts as well, because he has the highest ceiling (the 2012 season line) and theoretically the best chance to get to that ceiling (since he's only 25 years old still and in his prime). It's easy to say Trout is No. 1, but people sometimes miss how far ahead of the field he is, or at least his 2012 season was. (Btw, his .323-109-27-97-33 2013 season wasn't too shabby neither). Statistically, the 2012 season was miles ahead of anyone even close to him, and since there's only one person achieving that feat, his value for that season was astronomically high. In a snake draft (a traditional draft where everyone takes turns picking players) he was the obvious number one and the teams with the No. 1 pick got an obvious advantage, while in auction drafts (players are awarded based on bids, highest bidder wins) Trout should have been worth maybe DOUBLE the next player. That's something that should not be missed in an auction draft.

I wish I was worth DOUBLE what my closest competition was worth! I would feel so valuable and so wanted! I really enjoy analyzing numbers and how the numbers interact with each other, especially in terms of sports where the numbers are based on a real game and the numbers manifest themselves. But if it was just a simulation and there was no actual baseball being played (there are actually leagues like that) I'd still be interested. Well, actually, there's also something called the stock market where one can make money off of mathematical patterns and data analysis, but hey it's not as fun and it's not like I majored in finance or anything! (I did)

If only we could create statistics for dodgeball!

Fantasize on,

Robert Yan

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